You may remember that quote from the weatherman Bill Murray played in one of my favourite films Groundhog Day and which I was thinking might nicely sum up the first couple of weeks in December 2022 if the GFSGFS The Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. model is right, and that’s a big if. They’ve finally come into line with the ECMWFECMWF The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. model, at least up to T+240, in the latest midnight run. What does strike me about this sequence, is that despite pressure being high across IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK., we seem to still find ourselves in the middle of a battleground, with no shortage of showers or frontal systems managing to inveigle themselves into the flow. The one thing which we do have, and which we’ve had for sometime in all reality, is blocking, that has managed to retrogress itself westward from Finland towards the meridian in the last few weeks.
Meanwhile down at Exeter the medium and long range team are just as befuddled as their boss Professor Adam Scaife is about the position of the dominant high pressure will position itself for at least the next 10 days. In AEAE Anticyclonic Easterly situations like this, the one place that is likely to get clobbered is the south or southwest of the country and not the northwest. The only reason that I regularly read the long range forecast from the Met OfficeUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is to see just what the Twilight Zone feels like to a true believer. I wonder how long it will be before they catch onto the fact that there’s a easterly on the way instead of spinning a catch all line “the potential for high pressure to be located close to the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.“.
