El NiñoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024).
In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices in the central and eastern Pacific were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-3.4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3 was +1.8°C, and Niño1+2 was +3.4°C. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased compared to June, but remained positive, in association with anomalous warmth across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Starting in mid-July, low-level winds were anomalously westerly over the western equatorial Pacific, while anomalous easterlies prevailed over the eastern Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection continued to be enhanced around the International Date Line and was weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia. The equatorial SOISOI The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index. The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti (in the Pacific) and Darwin, Australia (on the Indian Ocean). and the traditional SOI were both negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.
I have smartened up my ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. application a little and downloaded the latest data. The monthly anomaly for August when published (the average of the three months July through to September) will confirm the current El Niño event started in June, but the rules used by NOAANOAA NOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather., if I remember them correctly, are that you need three of those three month averages above +0.5°C before this happens. The ENSO rules and stats are always a bit murky.
Here is another view of the weekly data that my ENSO application also displays.
