June 2024 was the 13th consecutive record warm month globally, in the ERA5ERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). series that started in 1979. It was well above the record anomaly that it set in June 2023, but having said that global temperatures are now starting to slide as El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific starts to kick in in the central Pacific. Daily anomalies have already fallen below the magic +1.5°C mark, and 2024 might have well have a job keeping up with records set up only last summer. I would like to confidently predict that June 2024 will be the last record breaking month, but I’ve done that before, and have already lost any street cred that I may have had. 😉
A rolling 365 day moving average of anomalies since pre-industrial times have been above 1.5ºC for all of this year. It’s currently at +1.64ºC and in its third peak since 2015. A 30 year linear trend shows that the average could reach the 1.5°C mark by late 2030.
