Iceland has been rather cold for much of this year. The reason I’ve put it down to was persistent NW’ly winds flowing down from off Greenland ice cap. This month however, a tongue of colder water SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures has extended E’NENE North East from the coast of SE Greenland and wrapped itself around Iceland’s north and east coast. You can see the effects of this if you look at temperature anomalies so far this October for Iceland. The cold month we’ve seen across much of the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., and which the media love to describe as ‘rather chilly’, may also be a symptom of the colder air across Iceland and those same NW’ly winds.
How long these low SST will continue around Iceland is anyone’s guess, and what if any effect this will have on the coming winter. One thing I have noticed for some time in the long-range 16 to 30 day text forecast from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, is the mention of higher pressure to the northwest of the UK which might be in somehow linked.
Towards mid-November, high pressure may become more focussed towards the northwest of the UK, allowing a gradual trend towards colder and perhaps more unsettled conditions, especially in more southern and eastern areas.
UKMO
16 Oct 2024