To say that the estimated global temperature for July made it the warmest on record of any month since 1850, it seems that no one bothered to let August know, and August had no intention of following suit, at least in our corner of the world.
Iceland was noticeably colder than average again.
The record high SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures kept the North Atlantic ~ 1°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
The intense heatwave in southern France seems to have been cancelled out by an equally cold start to August that no one seemed to notice.
According to the 42 day forecast for 2M temperatures from the ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data., it looks likely to be a mild, if not warm start to meteorological autumn 2023 across much of Europe. Let’s hope they’re forecast is wrong, it has been before.
A wet month in some parts of Nova Scotia in July by the looks of these totals. I don’t have LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. data for these places so can’t provide anomalies as I would like. But undeniable evidence of global boiling or the result of flash flooding from thunderstorms?
What surprised me about temperatures in July 2023 was how the media went on a frenzy and adopted what was a North African heatwave and described it as an whole encompassing European affair, when mean temperatures across a large part of the continent for much of the month were below average.🤔
As you can see the colour scale I use for temperature is dynamic rather than using a fixed set of colours as preferred by the BBCBBCThe British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is the national broadcaster of the United Kingdom, based at Broadcasting House in London. It is the world's oldest national broadcaster, and the largest broadcaster in the world by number of employees, employing over 22,000 staff in total, of whom approximately 19,000 are in public-sector broadcasting. and UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. It may not be transferable and directly comparable to any other month, but I find it much easier to find the hot and cold spots, and I can easily switch back to a fixed scale in software if necessary.
As far as I can see in the SYNOPSYNOPSYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. observations that I’ve downloaded for July 2023, and in complete contrast to July 2022 when temperatures exceeded 40°C, there wasn’t one single day when the maximum temperature [06-18] exceeded or equalled 30°C. Not many people know that😉
Courtesy Copernicus- the picture that caused all the fuss
Just a quick look back at the heatwave of July 2023 across the Mediterranean. There was a great deal of interest in this taken by the media in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., particularly the BBCBBCThe British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is the national broadcaster of the United Kingdom, based at Broadcasting House in London. It is the world's oldest national broadcaster, and the largest broadcaster in the world by number of employees, employing over 22,000 staff in total, of whom approximately 19,000 are in public-sector broadcasting.. As far as I can see it was in my opinion, and that’s what this blog is all about, was sparked off initially by some overzealous reporting by the new (to me) Rome correspondent who was interviewing a selection of British tourists in the centre of Rome in the middle of a hot sunny day. I think this was in reaction to a warning from METEOAMMeteoAMThe Italian Meteorological Service is an organizational unit of the Italian Air Force (Servizio Meteorologico dell'Aeronautica Militare) and the national meteorological service in Italy. The weather forecasts and other services serve both the armed forces and the general public. of a severe heatwave dubbed Cerberus on the 13th. If you’ve ever been to Italy or abroad you’ll realise it’s usually a good idea to hide from the sun at this time of the day😉 As far as I can ascertain from observational data there was a short 3 day heatwave (see thermograph below) at Rome’s airport. The trouble with observational data from Italy, as is the case in the UK, you can only access a subset of it, and unfortunately Rome has only one SYNOPSYNOPSYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. station situated at the airport on the coast. Because of the HIEUHIUrban Heat Island (UHI) is an urban area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities. The temperature difference is usually larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. UHI is most noticeable during the summer and winter. The main cause of the UHI effect is from the modification of land surfaces I’m sure it was much warmer in the centre of Rome. Not only is there a shortage of observational data for many countries, I challenge you to find any up to date LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. climate data for any of them either. What I mean here by up to date is the LTA for 1991-2020 and not that for 1971-2000 that I have for many stations. You would have thought in these days of “global boiling” the latest climate station for all member countries would be available on the WMOWMOThe World Meteorological Organisation is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics. website – no it isn’t – and if it wasn’t for Wikipedia, and some nifty parsing, I wouldn’t have collected over 800 LTA records across the world as I have. I’ve been watching and examining heatwaves closely across the UK and Europe since I retired from the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in 2011. There are no rules as to what constitutes a heatwave, and therein lies the problem. The UK have one set of rules and every other country has another, and that’s why I argued, mainly to myself because few people read what my views are or give a damn about them either, that instead of a rigid threshold for summer months of X°C for a region, as the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy do, a “heatwave day” should be defined on the anomaly of the maximum temperature for each individual station. Over the years I’ve developed software and I usually default to an anomaly of 6°C above the LTA. Personally I think this is much too low for a severe heatwave, and probably should be ~+10°C. The thermograph for Seville shows the extent of the heatwave there using this 6°C rule. Three distinct heatwave days up to the 28th. These anomalies are calculated using the 1981-2010 LTA and not the much colder LTA of 1971-2000.
Seville 1981-2010 LTA
These thermographs for Rome, Decimomannu and Palermo use the 1971-2000 LTA. and because they anomalies calculated using this slightly colder LTA, the anomalies are much warmer than if I had the ones for 1991-2020. I’ve emailed METEOAM to see if I can obtain them, but am not hopeful I will be able to source the latest climate data. I shouldn’t need to do this, or rely on Wikipedia to supply them, this basic climatological data should be available from the WMO. That aside the three thermographs do highlight a series of heatwave days, with many as 15 at Decimomannu in Sardinia with an extreme maximum of 46.8°C.
I hope I’ve explained the importance of using the latest LTA for all stations to get an unbiased picture of July’s heatwave. The map below of total heatwave days shows the number of days with a maximum temperature anomaly of 6°C or higher. There’s no doubt that it was hot across a large of southeastern Europe using the +6°C threshold, particularly across parts of northern Algeria and Tunisia. There are what looks like spuriously high anomalies scattered around these are probably caused by out-of-date LTA.
Number of days with a maximum temperature [06-18] >=+6°C
If you look at the next chart this shows the total number of days with anomalies of +10°C or more, and what I maintain are severe heatwave days. Heatwaves in the UK must last at least three consecutive days or more before they can be officially labelled a heatwave, many of the sites in the chart below away from North Africa have one or two, and even if they have more they may not be consecutive.
Number of days with a maximum temperature [06-18] >=+10°C
Looking at reanalysis gridded temperatures and anomalies up to the 26th reveal what I think was really going on. The core of the heat was across the north of Algeria and Tunisia, occasionally some of that very hot air escaped transferring northwards from Africa to affect parts of Sardinia, Sicily, southern Italy, western Greece and the Balkans, and because SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures temperatures in the Mediterranean were at record levels during July, the sea didn’t cool the air at the surface as much as it could. The other thing is the media got a hold of this story and ran with it, this was easy to do, because they already had stories about heatwaves in the southern states of America and China, and as the month went on wildfires broke out, and it was also announced that July was very likely to be the record hottest month – a perfect combination for catastrophising the whole thing🥵. For the record heatwaves don’t cause wildfires people do.
These two charts underline how warm June and sunny the June of 2023 was across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. It set new extremes in most regions, but not everywhere.
It’s been the warmest June since at least 1884 in the north of Scotland by a massive 1.2°C😲 It’s hard to believe just how warm June 2023 was in the north of Scotland, particularly so because we now call it home. The warmest in at least 140 years by a big, big, margin.
The 12 month average of 94% of average for the last 12 months means we’re still not out of the woods yet in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., after a hesitant recovery from last years dry spell.
It’s official, June 2023 was the warmest June since temperatures recorded started in 1884. Rather surprisingly it only came in as the fourth sunniest. Anomalies show that the north of Scotland was both the sunniest and warmest region in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. during June.
I’ve developed a single purpose application to analyse hourly temperatures for any station during a month. There’s more work to be done on it as it could be extended to look at other climate variables.
Notice the cold thread with the easterlies at the start of the month and the much warmer second half thread. Average temperatures sometimes hide the true story.
Compare those results with those from maritime climate of southern Ireland.
The warmest June since at least 1846. A very sunny month, particularly in the north, and generally drier than average in most places, with the exception of more localised flash flooding from thunderstorms.
1 Jun 2022-31 May 2023 Regional UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. 365 day precipitation POAPOAPercentage Of Average
The dry last three weeks have already had a noticeable effect on the 365 day percentage of LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Northern Scotland is now the driest, instead of being one of the wettest regions.
Northern Scotland Precipitation Spring [MAMMAMMeteorological Spring comprising the months of March, April & May] 1836-2023
A couple of dry springs in the last 6 yrs and drying springs are the result of the climate crisis A linear trend through the whole 188 years series reveals an increase of 5 mm/decade in that time.
Courtesy of anomaly charts for the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, here are the warmest and coldest May’s since 1910 across Scotland. Not a huge variation in temperature, ranging from the warmest in 2018 of 2.32°C above to 2.18°C below the 1961-1990 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in 1923. The yellow box at the bottom right-hand corner is the predominant Lamb Weather type for the month. The wettest May in Scotland since 1910 was in 2011 when over 223% of the average rain for the month fell. The driest May was in 1984 when just over 27% of the average fell.
Temperature anomalies show the effect of the early heatwave across Iberia from the pulse of hot air from northwest Africa in the last week. The central Atlantic remained colder than average again, but it was much warmer than average across the Ukraine and southwest of Russia.
It’s been a beautiful sunny week of weather in StrathpefferStrathpefferStrathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469.. Mornings have been cold with a touch of frost in more sheltered spots in the Highlands, but days have been clear and sunny with sunshine from dawn till dusk, that sunshine giving warm afternoons. The easterly wind on Wednesday and Thursday did pick up to moderate occasionally fresh during the mornings to take the edge of things out of the sun. There was a short spell of haar on both Thursday and Friday but it quickly burnt off.
The north-south temperature gradient in anomalies continued into March across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. It’s slightly ominous that +4°C anomalies are evident again across Morocco and a number of times the SSWSSWA sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by as much as 50 °C in the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere.’ly flow during the month pumped warm air across Iberia and into the south of France. This seems to have been a recurring theme in recent years and could provide the method of delivery for hot air in what could be another record breaking hot summer across central Europe.
The ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. are brave enough to let you turn the clock back on their 42 day forecasts and see how they performed. Not very well in the case of last week as it happens.
6-13 Mar 2023 Mean temperature anomalies
When this kind of thing happens, it always knocks your confidence as regards their promise of a milder than average April.
13 Mar – 24 Apr 2023 2m Mean temperature anomalies
February 2023 is likely to be the fifth driest February since 1931 using gridded data for England and Wales from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, and in central England it could well be the second driest. It’s been drier than average thanks to persistent high pressure, which although not uncommon in February, is not usually as long lasting as its been this year.
I can see how the Guardian used Will Lang, head of situational awareness at the UKMO, to manipulate another climate extremes scare story back in November. Yes it was significant at the time that the three-month forecast had not reached February yet, but I think we read far too much into tele-connections such as the QBOQBOThe quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found., NAONAOThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic., AOAOThe Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic pole north of 20 degrees latitude. It is an important mode of climate variability for the Northern Hemisphere. The southern hemisphere analogue is called the Antarctic oscillation or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal sea-level pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45° N., ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. and of course the SSWSSWA sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by as much as 50 °C in the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere., these days, thinking we are anywhere close to understanding the complexities of our global weather system, and this Guardian story illustrates this fact perfectly. The threat of flooding has not gone away, but it’s likely that it’ll be the lack of rainfall that will dominate the weather news across Europe this coming spring and summer.
