Surprisingly, October ended up a rather average kind of month as far as sunshine, precipitation and temperature were concerned for the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as whole. Regionally, the northwest was drier than average, and the northeast sunnier than average. Mean temperature anomalies across the nation, which were slightly above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., were within 0.3°C of each other. As Greavies would remark, it’s a funny old game Saint😜
Just a couple of hyetographs so far this year to compare precipitation totals at Loch Glascarnoch in Wester Ross with those at Gogarbank Edinburgh further south. The difference is very marked, with only 87.7% of the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in the north and 169% of the LTA in the south during the first five months of 2024. That large Edinburgh total is probably due in part to a couple of thundery days that occurred in April and May. Having said that, I’m sure that the tracks of the numerous lows and their frontal systems has much more to do with it.
There’s been a lot of talk about how climate change is resulting in wetter seasonal rainfall across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. You’ve all heard the mantra “A warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapour”, almost as cliched, but not quite as elegant as the definition of a jet stream being “A fast moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere”. Here are a few graphs of UK and regional 30 year moving averages that I’ve drawn from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial StrategyUKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. gridded climate data to illustrate what’s been going on since 1836.
I’ve added two linear trends to the annual UK precipitation graph, one for the 1865-1993 period and the second for the last 30 years from 1994 to 2023. You’ll immediately notice a dramatic increase in UK annual precipitation since 1980. You could argue that we’ve seen upticks like this before (1860-1885 and 1915-1930), and this is one is just the result of the natural variability of the climate as they were. I don’t think so though because this increase has been going on for over 40 years and shows no sign of running out of energy and linked with increases in global temperatures during the same period can’t be coincidental. The size of the linear trend suggests that annually the UK is getting wetter at the rate of almost exactly 1″ per decade, not a lot, but it’s the change in the rate that’s more important.
Winter [DJFDJFMeteorological Winter comprising the months of December, January & February] precipitation shows a similar increase from around 1995.
Summer [JJAJJAMeteorological Summer comprising the months June, July & August] rainfall is more dramatic still, with a steady decline in rainfall suddenly being reversed in the last 20 years.
Finally here’s a grid of monthly averages and trends for the UK. As you can see not all months are getting dramatically wetter. Some regions are showing little sign of getting wetter than they have been in the years up until 1993, January, April, November and December for example, whilst March and September have become a little drier in the last 30 years. I’ll leave you to make your minds up about the underlying reason for it. 😉
Basically a wet and very mild February across the south and southeast of England, but colder and drier further north and west. Dull across England and Wales but brighter further north and east further north and west particularly the northeast of Scotland.
The 365 day UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. total precipitation for Central England is still at record levels (149.9% of the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.) at the end of February 2024, as are the totals in the Northwest, Northeast & Southeast regions of England. Northern Scotland is the driest region and continues to run close to average as it’s done for the last year or more. We passed Loch Glascarnoch earlier this week on our way to Ullapool and I have never seen it as full as it is.
The 365 day UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. regional precipitation totals are running at record high levels at the moment. Never since the start of the gridded daily records in 1931 have 365 day totals been as high as they are on the 23 February 2024 for Central England, Eastern Scotland, Northern Ireland and England Wales. Anomalies for Central England for example are at 149.3% of the 1981-2010 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Hopefully I’ve got all my maths and my coding right 😉
The red ringed cells mark the highest 365 day totals for this region.Northern Scotland still has the lowest 365 day anomaly (105.2%).
Using gridded monthly climate data from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and a simple linear trend for over the last thirty year, it’s easy to see that annually the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as a whole has become warmer by 0.29°C per decade, wetter by 26 mm per decade and sunnier by 30 hours per decade. These three charts are twelve month moving averages from 1970, with a thirty year linear trend from 1995 to gauge the change overlaid.
Courtesy UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial StrategyMean Temperature Anomaly I make January just slightly colder than average across the whole of the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland..Extreme maximum and minimum A month of sharp contrasts in extreme temperature.Number of Air Frosts and Ice Days A fairly even distribution of air frosts across the country.Close to average generally, but much wetter across the north of England and drier further west and far north. I’m skeptical of no returns in snow so take many of these values with a pinch of salt.
Using the UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. daily rainfall data from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy it looks like Northern Scotland has still the lowest POAPOAPercentage Of Average of all Regions In the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. at 103.7%. The line series in the graph for the other regions in the UK are more amplified and wetter, with the Central region of England having the highest 133.4% POA. This time last year Central region were ~87%. It looks like 2023 started close to average and just steadily got wetter.
A thirty year linear trend reveals that the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. has become steadily warmer, wetter and sunnier in the last 30 years. The latest 12 month average at the end of December shows that the UK is currently running close to average for sunshine at 102%, but 111% for precipitation, whilst temperatures for the last 12 months are +0.81°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
Most regions in the last year have been between 10% and 25% wetter than average, all regions that is apart from northern Scotland which has been slightly drier. The whole series is tipped on its head with the northeast, central and southeast regions much wetter than average. All thanks are probably due to a south shifted jetstream for long spells since the end of June.
A perfect example this month of how gridded climate data, even when interpolated onto a 1 km x 1 km fine grid, can make some places drier and warmer that they really where.
Wettest Octobers 1836-2023 Rather Surprisingly, only E Scotland had a record wet month in the gridded regional data.Oct 2023 Rainfall POAPOAPercentage Of Average I’m not convinced with the contouring. I’ve never looked at it in detail before It’s neither caught the 228% in StrathpefferStrathpefferStrathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. (dark blue) or the 219% at Tain, and seems to have completely missed the 408% at WattishamThe interpolation & smoothing used by the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in producing its 1 x 1 km gridded data seems to have remove the wettest spots such as Wattisham completelyOctober 2023 Mean temperature anomalies Strange, several stations with anomalies of -0.5°C or lower across the Scotland not registering as a blue contour fill including Baltasound“though areas further north were generally closer to average”. Not quite accurate statement for some places across NENENorth East Scotland, and that includes Baltasound in Shetland, mean anomalies were 1°C below the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.
A wet month in some parts of Nova Scotia in July by the looks of these totals. I don’t have LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. data for these places so can’t provide anomalies as I would like. But undeniable evidence of global boiling or the result of flash flooding from thunderstorms?
These two charts underline how warm June and sunny the June of 2023 was across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. It set new extremes in most regions, but not everywhere.
The 12 month average of 94% of average for the last 12 months means we’re still not out of the woods yet in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., after a hesitant recovery from last years dry spell.
It’s official, June 2023 was the warmest June since temperatures recorded started in 1884. Rather surprisingly it only came in as the fourth sunniest. Anomalies show that the north of Scotland was both the sunniest and warmest region in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. during June.
The warmest June since at least 1846. A very sunny month, particularly in the north, and generally drier than average in most places, with the exception of more localised flash flooding from thunderstorms.
1 Jun 2022-31 May 2023 Regional UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. 365 day precipitation POAPOAPercentage Of Average
The dry last three weeks have already had a noticeable effect on the 365 day percentage of LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Northern Scotland is now the driest, instead of being one of the wettest regions.
Northern Scotland Precipitation Spring [MAMMAMMeteorological Spring comprising the months of March, April & May] 1836-2023
A couple of dry springs in the last 6 yrs and drying springs are the result of the climate crisis A linear trend through the whole 188 years series reveals an increase of 5 mm/decade in that time.
Mean temperatures in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. in the 12 months to the end of January have fallen back a little and are now just a shade below the 10°C level. Twelve month UK rainfall totals continue to bounce back (98% of the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.), and are now over 1100 mm, up from the lows of below 1000 mm that were seen in last years the dry spell. UK 12 month sunshine totals continue well above the one standard deviation level (111% of the LTA), and above 1500 hours for the fourth consecutive month.
The climate of the UK is considerably warmer, slightly wetter and much sunnier than it was back in 1993.
Temperature across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., in the gridded data series from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy over the last 12 months have peaked, and fell back a little in December, without achieving the dizzy heights of 2007.
Rainfall has made a hesitant recovery after the dry winter and spring of 2022.
Average 12 month sunshine across the UK is still nudging upwards.
Dear Diary, I thought that I would take a quick look at what the climate has been doing since 2000 closer to home by means of 12 month moving averages of the gridded climate data for the North of Scotland and which I download from the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Mean temperatures have edged fractionally warmer in the last 20 years, whilst annual precipitation has slightly decreased by 6mm per decade, sunshine has increased by 15 hours per decade. Nothing for Greta ThunbergGreta ThunbergGreta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg (born 3 January 2003) is a Swedish environmental activist who is known for challenging world leaders to take immediate action for climate change mitigation to get overly worked up about there then, but linear trends can be deceptive though, and I really should have used a thirty, and not a twenty year period, but what the hell, no one is reading this anyway.
