Precipitation

Is rainfall increasing in the UK?

There’s no doubt that precipitation is increasing in the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. over the last 30 years. These charts use gridded precipitation data from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy since 1836 and show a 30 year leading moving average of totals, and a couple of linear trends, one for the period 1865 to 1993, and another for the period 1994-2024. The annual chart, shows that there’s been an increase of almost 25 mm per decade in precipitation since 1994. Seasonally the changes have been less straightforward.

Winters [DJFDJF Meteorological Winter comprising the months of December, January & February] have become wetter by over 31 mm in the last 30 years.

Whilst spring [MAMMAM Meteorological Spring comprising the months of March, April & May] has got marginally drier since 1994.

Although summers [JJAJJA Meteorological Summer comprising the months June, July & August] were getting very slowly drier since 1836, from around 2003 this halted, and since summers have been getting progressively wetter, at the rate of 11.6 mm per decade much like winters.

Autumn [SONSON Meteorological Autumn - September, October and November] on the other hand have been slowly getting wetter by 3.2 mm per decade since 1994 at a similar rate since 1865.

Flooding, Precipitation, UK

Is rainfall increasing in the UK? Read More »

January 2025 – Weather Summary

The mean temperature in the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. in January was 3.0°C, which was 0.9°C below the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Temperatures in thirteen of the twenty five Januaries this century have been below average. Gridded mean temperature, like those in the central England series, show that Januaries in the last thirty years have more or less flatlined, cooling by 0.03°C per decade.
It was drier than average across Scotland, Northern Ireland and in NW England, but wetter elsewhere, particularly across the far south.
Sunshine was above average in most places apart from central southern England and the southeast.

January, Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature

January 2025 – Weather Summary Read More »

February 1986 – the most easterly on record

The most easterly February in the objective LWTLWT Lamb Weather Types are often used in UK-based analyses, with individual weather patterns based on the eight primary cardinal directions (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW) plus cyclonic (C), anticyclonic (A) and unclassified (U) types. series, which started in 1871, occurred in 1986, when 64% of weather types were classified either NENE North East, E or SE, with 32% identified as being Anticyclonic. This resulted in a very cold, but very dry (18% of the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.) and rather sunny month across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., with mean temperatures of -1.1°C, and anomalies -5.2°C below the 1991-2020 LTA.

February Objective LWT
Daily 850 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar Temperature Colour analysis

The gridded mean temperature of -1.1°C made 1986 the third joint coldest February since 1884.

In central England the mean temperature for the month was -1.0°C which was -6.0° below the 1991-2020 LTA, making it the joint fifth coldest February since 1659.

CET, February, LWT, Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature

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What’s happening to the climate of February?

There had been a slow decline in 30 year mean maximum and minimum temperature in February between 1940 and 1990, but over the last 30 years maximum temperatures have rocketed up at the rate of 0.5°C per decade, although the rise in 3o year average mean minimum temperatures has been a little slower.

Remarkably, the rise in mean temperature seems to have coincided with a corresponding rise in precipitation in February as well. The linear trend from 1865 to 1993 was showing a very slight fall in 30 year average precipitation in February, but since 1994, average precipitation totals have increased by 5.8 mm each decade.

Sunshine in February has seen a rise of 3.1 hours per decade in the last 30 years. Totals have been rather static for the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. for a period that began in 1960 and which ended in 2000.
So, the short answer to the question ‘what’s happening to the climate in February’ is, are they getting progressively warmer, wetter and sunnier.

February, Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature

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February extremes in the UK

Here are anomaly charts for the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. for extreme rainfall, sunshine and mean temperatures during the month of February, courtesy of the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Temperature and rainfall anomaly charts are available from 1910, but sunshine charts have only been produced since 2001. Why this is when the Met OfficeUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy have all the gridded data to generate them with, is a question only they can answer. Surely it wouldn’t take that much effort to extend the series back to at least 1884 for temperature, 1836 for rainfall and 1910 for sunshine. Perhaps they’re looking for a group of volunteers to do it for them? In a similar way to how a similar group of volunteers digitised the data for them in the first place.😂 Wouldn’t it also be an excellent idea in the spirit of inter Metservice co-operation, to ask Met EireannMet Éireann Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland., if they could have their permission to use their climate data to fill in the missing data for the rest of Ireland?

February, Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature, UKMO

February extremes in the UK Read More »

2024 – Weather Summary

The climate across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. during 2024 was :-

  • Rather warm everywhere, but very warm across much of England.
  • Wet across central southern England, parts of the Midlands and northwest England, but less wet further north, particularly Northern Ireland, where totals were below average.
  • Rather dull, with below average sunshine in much of the west, but brighter further east, with above average sunshine totals across East Anglia and the far east.
Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature, Weather Summary

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Weather Summary – December 2024

December was a very mild month across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., the fifth warmest in the UK to be exact since 1884, with a mean temperature of 6.2°C, that was +2.0°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Rainfall totals were closer to average though, at 110% of the POAPOA Percentage Of Average, the wetter weather in the north balancing out the drier weather across the south. It was a very dull month across the board, sunshine totals were the fourth lowest since 1910, at just 57% of the POA.

December, Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature, Weather Summary

Weather Summary – December 2024 Read More »

The most anticyclonic December

Using the objective LWTLWT Lamb Weather Types are often used in UK-based analyses, with individual weather patterns based on the eight primary cardinal directions (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW) plus cyclonic (C), anticyclonic (A) and unclassified (U) types. as a guide, the most anticyclonic December since 1871 across the British Isles occurred as recently as 1991.

Despite being so anticyclonic, 1991 only managed #41 driest December in the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. since 1836, with a total of 83 mm of precipitation (65% of average). A much drier December occurred more recently in the cold December of 2010, when just 47 mm fell (37% of the 1991-2020 long-term average).

Anticyclone, December, LWT, Precipitation

The most anticyclonic December Read More »

England Wales Precipitation – Seasonal Trends since 1766

The long-running England & Wales Precipitation [EWPEWP The England Wales Precipitation series began in 1766 and is the longest instrumental series of this kind in the world.] series began in 1766, and is the longest instrumental series of this kind in the world. It’s part of the HadUKP series of datasets of UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. regional precipitation. Here are five charts of seasonal and annual totals from 1766 to 2024. To each of them I’ve added a 10 year centred moving average, along with a linear trend from 1766 to 2024. Data for Autumn 2024 isn’t in yet, but I’ll update it when it has. Basically in the last 258 years precipitation across England and Wales:-

  • Winters have got a much wetter up from 198 mm to 276 mm (+39.4%)
  • Springs have got rather wetter up from 175 mm to 195 mm (+11.5%)
  • Summers have got drier down from 245 mm to 212 mm (-13.6%)
  • Winters have got a little drier down from 273 mm to 268 mm (-1.9%)
  • Annually things have got wetter from 890 mm to 952 mm (+6.9%)
Climate, EWP, Precipitation

England Wales Precipitation – Seasonal Trends since 1766 Read More »

October 2024 – Weather Summary

Surprisingly, October ended up a rather average kind of month as far as sunshine, precipitation and temperature were concerned for the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as whole. Regionally, the northwest was drier than average, and the northeast sunnier than average. Mean temperature anomalies across the nation, which were slightly above the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., were within 0.3°C of each other. As Greavies would remark, it’s a funny old game Saint😜

October, Precipitation, Temperature

October 2024 – Weather Summary Read More »

Jan-May 2024: Disparity in precipitation across Scotland

Just a couple of hyetographs so far this year to compare precipitation totals at Loch Glascarnoch in Wester Ross with those at Gogarbank Edinburgh further south. The difference is very marked, with only 87.7% of the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in the north and 169% of the LTA in the south during the first five months of 2024. That large Edinburgh total is probably due in part to a couple of thundery days that occurred in April and May. Having said that, I’m sure that the tracks of the numerous lows and their frontal systems has much more to do with it.

Precipitation, Scotland

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Recent uptick in UK Precipitation

There’s been a lot of talk about how climate change is resulting in wetter seasonal rainfall across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. You’ve all heard the mantra “A warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapour”, almost as cliched, but not quite as elegant as the definition of a jet stream being “A fast moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere”. Here are a few graphs of UK and regional 30 year moving averages that I’ve drawn from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy UKPUKP UKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. gridded climate data to illustrate what’s been going on since 1836.

I’ve added two linear trends to the annual UK precipitation graph, one for the 1865-1993 period and the second for the last 30 years from 1994 to 2023. You’ll immediately notice a dramatic increase in UK annual precipitation since 1980. You could argue that we’ve seen upticks like this before (1860-1885 and 1915-1930), and this is one is just the result of the natural variability of the climate as they were. I don’t think so though because this increase has been going on for over 40 years and shows no sign of running out of energy and linked with increases in global temperatures during the same period can’t be coincidental. The size of the linear trend suggests that annually the UK is getting wetter at the rate of almost exactly 1″ per decade, not a lot, but it’s the change in the rate that’s more important.

Winter [DJFDJF Meteorological Winter comprising the months of December, January & February] precipitation shows a similar increase from around 1995.

Summer [JJAJJA Meteorological Summer comprising the months June, July & August] rainfall is more dramatic still, with a steady decline in rainfall suddenly being reversed in the last 20 years.

Finally here’s a grid of monthly averages and trends for the UK. As you can see not all months are getting dramatically wetter. Some regions are showing little sign of getting wetter than they have been in the years up until 1993, January, April, November and December for example, whilst March and September have become a little drier in the last 30 years. I’ll leave you to make your minds up about the underlying reason for it. 😉

Climate Crisis, Global Warming, Precipitation

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UKP – 365 day totals

The 365 day UKPUKP UKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. total precipitation for Central England is still at record levels (149.9% of the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.) at the end of February 2024, as are the totals in the Northwest, Northeast & Southeast regions of England. Northern Scotland is the driest region and continues to run close to average as it’s done for the last year or more. We passed Loch Glascarnoch earlier this week on our way to Ullapool and I have never seen it as full as it is.

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Precipitation, UKP

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UKP – Running at record high levels

The 365 day UKPUKP UKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. regional precipitation totals are running at record high levels at the moment. Never since the start of the gridded daily records in 1931 have 365 day totals been as high as they are on the 23 February 2024 for Central England, Eastern Scotland, Northern Ireland and England Wales. Anomalies for Central England for example are at 149.3% of the 1981-2010 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Hopefully I’ve got all my maths and my coding right 😉

The red ringed cells mark the highest 365 day totals for this region.
Northern Scotland still has the lowest 365 day anomaly (105.2%).
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Precipitation, UKP

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The UK has got warmer, wetter and sunnier since 1995

Using gridded monthly climate data from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and a simple linear trend for over the last thirty year, it’s easy to see that annually the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as a whole has become warmer by 0.29°C per decade, wetter by 26 mm per decade and sunnier by 30 hours per decade. These three charts are twelve month moving averages from 1970, with a thirty year linear trend from 1995 to gauge the change overlaid.

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Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature, UK

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January 2024 – Weather Summary

Courtesy UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Mean Temperature Anomaly
I make January just slightly colder than average across the whole of the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland..
Extreme maximum and minimum
A month of sharp contrasts in extreme temperature.
Number of Air Frosts and Ice Days
A fairly even distribution of air frosts across the country.
Close to average generally, but much wetter across the north of England and drier further west and far north.
I’m skeptical of no returns in snow so take many of these values with a pinch of salt.
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January, Precipitation, Temperature

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UK Precipitation – 2023

Using the UKPUKP UKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. daily rainfall data from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy it looks like Northern Scotland has still the lowest POAPOA Percentage Of Average of all Regions In the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. at 103.7%. The line series in the graph for the other regions in the UK are more amplified and wetter, with the Central region of England having the highest 133.4% POA. This time last year Central region were ~87%. It looks like 2023 started close to average and just steadily got wetter.

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Anomalies, Precipitation

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UK 12 month moving averages | 1993-2023

A thirty year linear trend reveals that the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. has become steadily warmer, wetter and sunnier in the last 30 years. The latest 12 month average at the end of December shows that the UK is currently running close to average for sunshine at 102%, but 111% for precipitation, whilst temperatures for the last 12 months are +0.81°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..

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Precipitation, Sunshine, Temperature

UK 12 month moving averages | 1993-2023 Read More »

UKP – 365 day Regional Rainfall

Most regions in the last year have been between 10% and 25% wetter than average, all regions that is apart from northern Scotland which has been slightly drier. The whole series is tipped on its head with the northeast, central and southeast regions much wetter than average. All thanks are probably due to a south shifted jetstream for long spells since the end of June.

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Precipitation

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October 2023 – Weather Summary

Weather Summary

A perfect example this month of how gridded climate data, even when interpolated onto a 1 km x 1 km fine grid, can make some places drier and warmer that they really where.

Wettest Octobers 1836-2023
Rather Surprisingly, only E Scotland had a record wet month in the gridded regional data.
Oct 2023 Rainfall POAPOA Percentage Of Average
I’m not convinced with the contouring.
I’ve never looked at it in detail before It’s neither caught the 228% in StrathpefferStrathpeffer Strathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. (dark blue) or the 219% at Tain, and seems to have completely missed the 408% at Wattisham
The interpolation & smoothing used by the Met OfficeUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in producing its 1 x 1 km gridded data seems to have remove the wettest spots such as Wattisham completely
October 2023 Mean temperature anomalies
Strange, several stations with anomalies of -0.5°C or lower across the Scotland not registering as a blue contour fill including Baltasound
“though areas further north were generally closer to average”.
Not quite accurate statement for some places across NENE North East Scotland, and that includes Baltasound in Shetland, mean anomalies were 1°C below the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.
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October, Precipitation, Temperature

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