The climate across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. during 2024 was :-
Rather warm everywhere, but very warm across much of England.
Wet across central southern England, parts of the Midlands and northwest England, but less wet further north, particularly Northern Ireland, where totals were below average.
Rather dull, with below average sunshine in much of the west, but brighter further east, with above average sunshine totals across East Anglia and the far east.
December was a very mild month across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., the fifth warmest in the UK to be exact since 1884, with a mean temperature of 6.2°C, that was +2.0°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Rainfall totals were closer to average though, at 110% of the POAPOAPercentage Of Average, the wetter weather in the north balancing out the drier weather across the south. It was a very dull month across the board, sunshine totals were the fourth lowest since 1910, at just 57% of the POA.
Using the objective LWTLWTLamb Weather Types are often used in UK-based analyses, with individual weather patterns based on the eight primary cardinal directions (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW) plus cyclonic (C), anticyclonic (A) and unclassified (U) types. as a guide, the most anticyclonic December since 1871 across the British Isles occurred as recently as 1991.
Despite being so anticyclonic, 1991 only managed #41 driest December in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. since 1836, with a total of 83 mm of precipitation (65% of average). A much drier December occurred more recently in the cold December of 2010, when just 47 mm fell (37% of the 1991-2020 long-term average).
The long-running England & Wales Precipitation [EWPEWPThe England Wales Precipitation series began in 1766 and is the longest instrumental series of this kind in the world.] series began in 1766, and is the longest instrumental series of this kind in the world. It’s part of the HadUKP series of datasets of UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. regional precipitation. Here are five charts of seasonal and annual totals from 1766 to 2024. To each of them I’ve added a 10 year centred moving average, along with a linear trend from 1766 to 2024. Data for Autumn 2024 isn’t in yet, but I’ll update it when it has. Basically in the last 258 years precipitation across England and Wales:-
Winters have got a much wetter up from 198 mm to 276 mm (+39.4%)
Springs have got rather wetter up from 175 mm to 195 mm (+11.5%)
Summers have got drier down from 245 mm to 212 mm (-13.6%)
Winters have got a little drier down from 273 mm to 268 mm (-1.9%)
Annually things have got wetter from 890 mm to 952 mm (+6.9%)
Surprisingly, October ended up a rather average kind of month as far as sunshine, precipitation and temperature were concerned for the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as whole. Regionally, the northwest was drier than average, and the northeast sunnier than average. Mean temperature anomalies across the nation, which were slightly above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., were within 0.3°C of each other. As Greavies would remark, it’s a funny old game Saint😜
Just a couple of hyetographs so far this year to compare precipitation totals at Loch Glascarnoch in Wester Ross with those at Gogarbank Edinburgh further south. The difference is very marked, with only 87.7% of the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in the north and 169% of the LTA in the south during the first five months of 2024. That large Edinburgh total is probably due in part to a couple of thundery days that occurred in April and May. Having said that, I’m sure that the tracks of the numerous lows and their frontal systems has much more to do with it.
There’s been a lot of talk about how climate change is resulting in wetter seasonal rainfall across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. You’ve all heard the mantra “A warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapour”, almost as cliched, but not quite as elegant as the definition of a jet stream being “A fast moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere”. Here are a few graphs of UK and regional 30 year moving averages that I’ve drawn from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial StrategyUKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. gridded climate data to illustrate what’s been going on since 1836.
I’ve added two linear trends to the annual UK precipitation graph, one for the 1865-1993 period and the second for the last 30 years from 1994 to 2023. You’ll immediately notice a dramatic increase in UK annual precipitation since 1980. You could argue that we’ve seen upticks like this before (1860-1885 and 1915-1930), and this is one is just the result of the natural variability of the climate as they were. I don’t think so though because this increase has been going on for over 40 years and shows no sign of running out of energy and linked with increases in global temperatures during the same period can’t be coincidental. The size of the linear trend suggests that annually the UK is getting wetter at the rate of almost exactly 1″ per decade, not a lot, but it’s the change in the rate that’s more important.
Winter [DJFDJFMeteorological Winter comprising the months of December, January & February] precipitation shows a similar increase from around 1995.
Summer [JJAJJAMeteorological Summer comprising the months June, July & August] rainfall is more dramatic still, with a steady decline in rainfall suddenly being reversed in the last 20 years.
Finally here’s a grid of monthly averages and trends for the UK. As you can see not all months are getting dramatically wetter. Some regions are showing little sign of getting wetter than they have been in the years up until 1993, January, April, November and December for example, whilst March and September have become a little drier in the last 30 years. I’ll leave you to make your minds up about the underlying reason for it. 😉
Basically a wet and very mild February across the south and southeast of England, but colder and drier further north and west. Dull across England and Wales but brighter further north and east further north and west particularly the northeast of Scotland.
The 365 day UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. total precipitation for Central England is still at record levels (149.9% of the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.) at the end of February 2024, as are the totals in the Northwest, Northeast & Southeast regions of England. Northern Scotland is the driest region and continues to run close to average as it’s done for the last year or more. We passed Loch Glascarnoch earlier this week on our way to Ullapool and I have never seen it as full as it is.
The 365 day UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. regional precipitation totals are running at record high levels at the moment. Never since the start of the gridded daily records in 1931 have 365 day totals been as high as they are on the 23 February 2024 for Central England, Eastern Scotland, Northern Ireland and England Wales. Anomalies for Central England for example are at 149.3% of the 1981-2010 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Hopefully I’ve got all my maths and my coding right 😉
The red ringed cells mark the highest 365 day totals for this region.Northern Scotland still has the lowest 365 day anomaly (105.2%).
Using gridded monthly climate data from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and a simple linear trend for over the last thirty year, it’s easy to see that annually the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as a whole has become warmer by 0.29°C per decade, wetter by 26 mm per decade and sunnier by 30 hours per decade. These three charts are twelve month moving averages from 1970, with a thirty year linear trend from 1995 to gauge the change overlaid.
Courtesy UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial StrategyMean Temperature Anomaly I make January just slightly colder than average across the whole of the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland..Extreme maximum and minimum A month of sharp contrasts in extreme temperature.Number of Air Frosts and Ice Days A fairly even distribution of air frosts across the country.Close to average generally, but much wetter across the north of England and drier further west and far north. I’m skeptical of no returns in snow so take many of these values with a pinch of salt.
Using the UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. daily rainfall data from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy it looks like Northern Scotland has still the lowest POAPOAPercentage Of Average of all Regions In the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. at 103.7%. The line series in the graph for the other regions in the UK are more amplified and wetter, with the Central region of England having the highest 133.4% POA. This time last year Central region were ~87%. It looks like 2023 started close to average and just steadily got wetter.
A thirty year linear trend reveals that the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. has become steadily warmer, wetter and sunnier in the last 30 years. The latest 12 month average at the end of December shows that the UK is currently running close to average for sunshine at 102%, but 111% for precipitation, whilst temperatures for the last 12 months are +0.81°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
Most regions in the last year have been between 10% and 25% wetter than average, all regions that is apart from northern Scotland which has been slightly drier. The whole series is tipped on its head with the northeast, central and southeast regions much wetter than average. All thanks are probably due to a south shifted jetstream for long spells since the end of June.
A perfect example this month of how gridded climate data, even when interpolated onto a 1 km x 1 km fine grid, can make some places drier and warmer that they really where.
Wettest Octobers 1836-2023 Rather Surprisingly, only E Scotland had a record wet month in the gridded regional data.Oct 2023 Rainfall POAPOAPercentage Of Average I’m not convinced with the contouring. I’ve never looked at it in detail before It’s neither caught the 228% in StrathpefferStrathpefferStrathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. (dark blue) or the 219% at Tain, and seems to have completely missed the 408% at WattishamThe interpolation & smoothing used by the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in producing its 1 x 1 km gridded data seems to have remove the wettest spots such as Wattisham completelyOctober 2023 Mean temperature anomalies Strange, several stations with anomalies of -0.5°C or lower across the Scotland not registering as a blue contour fill including Baltasound“though areas further north were generally closer to average”. Not quite accurate statement for some places across NENENorth East Scotland, and that includes Baltasound in Shetland, mean anomalies were 1°C below the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.
A wet month in some parts of Nova Scotia in July by the looks of these totals. I don’t have LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. data for these places so can’t provide anomalies as I would like. But undeniable evidence of global boiling or the result of flash flooding from thunderstorms?
These two charts underline how warm June and sunny the June of 2023 was across the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.. It set new extremes in most regions, but not everywhere.
The 12 month average of 94% of average for the last 12 months means we’re still not out of the woods yet in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., after a hesitant recovery from last years dry spell.
It’s official, June 2023 was the warmest June since temperatures recorded started in 1884. Rather surprisingly it only came in as the fourth sunniest. Anomalies show that the north of Scotland was both the sunniest and warmest region in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. during June.
The warmest June since at least 1846. A very sunny month, particularly in the north, and generally drier than average in most places, with the exception of more localised flash flooding from thunderstorms.
1 Jun 2022-31 May 2023 Regional UKPUKPUKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. 365 day precipitation POAPOAPercentage Of Average
The dry last three weeks have already had a noticeable effect on the 365 day percentage of LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Northern Scotland is now the driest, instead of being one of the wettest regions.
