A bridge between two large positive temperature anomalies, one in the west of in Hudson Bay (+11°C), the other in the east in the Kara Sea (+7°C), spanned the North Atlantic in December. Either side was generally cooler, Southern Greenland was anomalously cold (-5°C), as was much of the southern North Atlantic, Mediterranean and near East. Anomalies across IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. in the bridge were a toasty +1.6°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
I make the mean global temperature anomaly in 2024 a full 1.6°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in pre-industrial times. This is warmest year in the series which started in 1940, and is around 0.12°C warmer than it was in 2023. If it warms at the same rate as it’s done over the last 30 years, linear trends suggest that a 30 year average of +1.5°C will occur in just over five years time, in July 2030.
I make December 2024, using ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). daily global temperature data, the second warmest globally in the series that starts in 1940. Mean anomalies were just under 1.7°C degrees above the pre-industrial LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., and close to 0.1°C lower than they were in December 2023.
Using my DIYDIYDo It Yourself global temperature series that I glean from the NOAANOAANOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather. reanalysis data I download, I make the mean temperature for November 2024 9.73°C, this is lower than the 9.81°C of November 2023 by 0.08°C, which doesn’t look a lot, but when it comes to global temperatures it’s really quite large. The recent surge in global temperatures over the last two years has now peaked, as can be seen in the 365 day moving average. Where it goes in the coming year is anyone’s guess and dependent on ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. and the SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures in the world’s oceans which are currently still close to record levels.
The 30 year average of ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). global temperature anomalies will reach +1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial age by the 27th of October 2029. That’s what an extrapolation forward of a linear trend for the last 30 years daily anomalies indicates. The daily series has already had values over +2.0°C in the last year, and the estimated annual mean for 2024 (as of 30 November) already stands at +1.59°C. The 30 year mean is important because 30 years is the period that the WMOWMOThe World Meteorological Organisation is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics. use for climatological averages.
Is there a four year cycle in global temperatures? The short answer to that question is probably not. But the last three well defined peaks in the 12 monthly average in 2016, 2020 and 2024, do fit very nicely with the idea of four year cycle. Before that you have to twist the theory quite a bit to find another vague, but much less well defined series, with the years 1998, 2002, 2006 & 2010.
The global temperature estimates made by the ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. in the ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). series show that October 2024 was the second warmest in the short series back to 1948. I’m quite glad about that, because my DIYDIYDo It Yourself reanalysis series which I maintain showed the same thing. What is more astounding about October’s temperatures though, is that a 30 year linear trend on the ERA5 data shows a whopping 0.313°C decadal rise in global temperatures. If this were typical for all months of the year you can forget about limiting the increase in warming to only 1.5°C, it would be more like 3°C.😮
The cold theme continued across southern Greenland & Iceland during October. It was particularly warm across Arctic Canada and to the north of Franz Józef Land in the Arctic ocean (+12°C), central parts of the United States where also much warmer than average (+5°C). Europe was generally 1-3 degrees above average. Spot my deliberate mistake in anomalies across Africa, if I had more than 14 subscribers I would bother to fix it. 😜
Globally, October 2024 was the second warmest in my DIYDIYDo It Yourself reanalysis series that extend back to 1948, fractionally behind 2023.
The daily mean global temperature has just overtaken those in October last year once again, setting more new daily records. Even without an El NinoEl NiñoEl Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, the globe still continues to steadily warm. ☹
Iceland has been rather cold for much of this year. The reason I’ve put it down to was persistent NW’ly winds flowing down from off Greenland ice cap. This month however, a tongue of colder water SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures has extended E’NENENorth East from the coast of SE Greenland and wrapped itself around Iceland’s north and east coast. You can see the effects of this if you look at temperature anomalies so far this October for Iceland. The cold month we’ve seen across much of the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., and which the media love to describe as ‘rather chilly’, may also be a symptom of the colder air across Iceland and those same NW’ly winds.
How long these low SST will continue around Iceland is anyone’s guess, and what if any effect this will have on the coming winter. One thing I have noticed for some time in the long-range 16 to 30 day text forecast from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, is the mention of higher pressure to the northwest of the UK which might be in somehow linked.
Towards mid-November, high pressure may become more focussed towards the northwest of the UK, allowing a gradual trend towards colder and perhaps more unsettled conditions, especially in more southern and eastern areas.
After a break from being the warmest month on record in July, the ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). series is back on track. This months anomaly of +0.712°C was again the warmest on record, but just a smidgeon (0.002°C) warmer than that of August 2023 (0.71°C).
It may be another record month, but the 12 month moving average has flattened out now, after sharply rising since mid 2022. As you would expect 2023 and 2024 are also neck and neck as the highest daily anomaly on record too. It looks to me that the global temperatures we’ve experienced over the last 18 months could become the new norm despite an imminent La NinaLa NiñaLa Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man.".
A lot of strange goings on in mean temperature anomalies for August across this part of the northern hemisphere. One of them was a belt of colder than average temperatures that extended from the central Asia southwest across Pakistan, and then on westward across sub Saharan Africa. Another was the more intense pockets of cold air across British Columbia and Iceland. The North Atlantic was a little colder than average north of 55N, but much warmer than that to the south (+2C), the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. again ending up sandwiched again in a NW-SE temperature gradient.
The 13 month consecutive record breaking streak in the ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). global temperature series has come to an end. The July anomaly of +0.68°C, although high, was lower than the +0.724°C of July 2023. The 12 month moving averages are also starting to show a lessening in the steepness of the rapid increase since the start of 2023. I’ve seen little mention of this news in the media which doesn’t surprise me that much. 😉
Despite being knocked off the top spot for warmest month in July, the daily global temperature for the 7th of August is still setting new records. It’s vying with 2023 for warmest and currently stands at +1.597°C above the pre-industrial LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
Mean temperatures across the British Isles were close to the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. Much of the North Atlantic was warm (+3C) south of 55N, but a band of colder temperatures extended from Baffin Island (-5C) in the west to southern Scandinavia (-1C) in the east. Meanwhile the north of Scandinavia was warm (+3C), likewise SE Europe around Bulgaria was also very warm (+4C).
The daily global temperature record was broken three times in the last week, each time by a relatively minute amount. According to the ERAERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). 5 data the warmest day occurred on the 22nd of July 2024, and stands at 17.16°C, which is +1.713 above the pre-industrial LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., and well in excess of the +1.5°C threshold often quoted by the IPCCIPCCThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change.
It was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, and later endorsed by United Nations General Assembly..
June 2024 was the 13th consecutive record warm month globally, in the ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). series that started in 1979. It was well above the record anomaly that it set in June 2023, but having said that global temperatures are now starting to slide as El NinoEl NiñoEl Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific starts to kick in in the central Pacific. Daily anomalies have already fallen below the magic +1.5°C mark, and 2024 might have well have a job keeping up with records set up only last summer. I would like to confidently predict that June 2024 will be the last record breaking month, but I’ve done that before, and have already lost any street cred that I may have had. 😉
Daily Anomalies
A rolling 365 day moving average of anomalies since pre-industrial times have been above 1.5ºC for all of this year. It’s currently at +1.64ºC and in its third peak since 2015. A 30 year linear trend shows that the average could reach the 1.5°C mark by late 2030.
Mean temperatures were close to or a little below average across IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK.. A cold trough extended SSE from central Greenland, through Iceland and on into Iberia and southern France. Warmer than average air dominated the central Atlantic, and in a band running from northern Scandinavia, down into eastern Russia, Turkey and on into north Africa.
In my DIYDIYDo It Yourself Global Temperatures series that I calculate from gridded reanalysis temperature, May 2024 has come in with a record mean temperature of 10.7°C that’s 0.35°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
Latest ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. global temperatures are still at record levels as of the 1st of June at +1.69°C above the pre-industrial LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. levels. I mistakenly thought that the demise of El NinoEl NiñoEl Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific this spring into the neutral zone might cool things down globally, but I was wrong again. We are now one year on from when this unprecedented surge in global temperatures began, and there’s little doubt that will mean 12 months of consecutive records.
My DIYDIYDo It Yourself global temperature series was wrong once again in April. It predicted a tie in global temperatures with April 2016, but shock horror, ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). reports an anomaly of +0.67°C, which is well above the +0.529°C of 2016 making it the eleventh consecutive warmest month. 😲 Below is a graph of 12 month moving average global temperature anomalies since April 1994 from seven of the world’s leading global temperature series. None of them are as quick of the mark at reporting their results like the ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data., but all show the recent surge that started at the beginning of 2023. The 30 year linear trend on the ERA5 series shows an increase of +0.24°C per decade over that time, and the warming trend that started in 1970 is starting to accelerate.
In my DIYDIYDo It Yourself global temperature series April 2024 tied with April 2016 as warmest with a mean of 10.17°C and anomaly that was +0.18°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. I wonder how much of an underestimate that was this month?
Is it possible to get a heatwave in Spring? I beleive it is, and it seems to have already happened at least once since the start of astronomical spring in central Europe. I reckon that maximum temperatures anomalies of 10°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. constitute a heatwave day. The definition of a heatwave of course is that these high temperatures should occur for at least three consecutive days or more. So the charts I’ve constructed are just a simple count of days with anomalies higher than 10°C. I’ve not any deep research into this, but have just added a chart for 2023 for a comparison. I think, like a lot of others do, that with global surface temperatures and North Atlantic SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures being at unprecedented high levels as they are at present this is portentous, and summer across mainland Europe could see a record number of severe heatwave events and the risks that this brings. Hopefully I’m proved wrong, and surges of warm air flooding up from the tropics won’t occur too frequently.
Here’s a graph of the latest 12 month moving averages of estimated global temperature anomalies since 1994 from seven Met services around the world. All seven series show the 12 month average for February at all time record levels, as usual the JMAJMAThe Japan Meteorological Agency (気象庁, Kishō-chō), abbreviated JMA, is an agency of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. and CRUTEM5 data is running one month behind the rest. The Era5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). series from Copernicus continues to lead the way as far as the rate of warming is concerned, with a linear trend over the last 30 years of +0.238°C per decade. The overlaid blue and pink bands are La NinaLa NiñaLa Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." and El NinoEl NiñoEl Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific events.
I have added some extra functionality to my ERA5ERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). application so that I can download and access latest the ERAERAERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). 5 daily SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures anomalies, as well as the daily 2m temperature data. SST data starts in 1979 but there’s enough of it to draw a scatter graph and see what correlation there exists between the two if you couldn’t already guess that there would be anything other than a very strong one. As you can see from the chart above my guess was correct 😜. I’ve coloured the series red for all dates after the 1 January 2023 to highlight the surge in SST in the last year or so. I will calculate and add the correlation coefficient at a later date, or as the say in this part of the world I’ll do that directly.
I’ve added a chart of 7 and a 365 day moving averages to view the sudden explosive rise in SST over the last 12 months. I would say that most charts I see bandied about regarding this rise in SST use data that is not strictly “global”, extending as the ER5 data does from 60N to 60S. I would have thought that it might be better if the global value would be more accurate if it were calculated for all oceans, regardless of sea ice. It might not be particularly scientific but why couldn’t they use a value of zero for any grid point that had sea ice present?
