Before I forget to review the 3-Month Outlook for spring 2023, I’ll just include a screenshot of the graphics from the PDFPDFPortable Document Format (PDF), standardized as ISO 32000, is a file format developed by Adobe in 1992. to act as a reminder to me. It already looks like they didn’t foresee a wet March, even though the forecast was only published on the 27th of February. I never heard much in their Twitter feed about that. It’s a good job they feel obliged to archive them each month these days.
A bit slow to look back on this one, but in hindsight the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy did a reasonable job with the simple indices of temperature and rainfall, although for December, if I’ve got the hang of the three lower graphs they didn’t do quite as well. It’s a shame they can’t include sunshine in this outlook it’s an obvious omission. It’s also about time they published gridded, regional mean monthly wind speed as well, they obviously have the figures but like to hide them for some reason known only to themselves.
Dear Diary, According to the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy the winter of 2022-23 will basically be drier than average, less windy than average with temperatures slightly above average. Not much of a forecast really is it? Neither is it split into the three individual months, but lumps all of them together, hardly much precision in that. I’d love to know what value ‘contingency planners’ glean from this table of probabilities, in fact I’d just to love to know what they do. Anyway I’ll keep a note of their predictions, for what they’re worth, and see how they did on the first of March 2023, that’s if I’m still around. They look to have got off to a good start, but as they issued this outlook on the 28th of November, when the ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. model was already going for a spell of continental easterlies followed by an Arctic northerly, that was a given.
You may remember that quote from the weatherman Bill Murray played in one of my favourite films Groundhog Day and which I was thinking might nicely sum up the first couple of weeks in December 2022 if the GFSGFSThe Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. model is right, and that’s a big if. They’ve finally come into line with the ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. model, at least up to T+240, in the latest midnight run. What does strike me about this sequence, is that despite pressure being high across IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK., we seem to still find ourselves in the middle of a battleground, with no shortage of showers or frontal systems managing to inveigle themselves into the flow. The one thing which we do have, and which we’ve had for sometime in all reality, is blocking, that has managed to retrogress itself westward from Finland towards the meridian in the last few weeks.
Meanwhile down at Exeter the medium and long range team are just as befuddled as their boss Professor Adam Scaife is about the position of the dominant high pressure will position itself for at least the next 10 days. In AEAEAnticyclonic Easterly situations like this, the one place that is likely to get clobbered is the south or southwest of the country and not the northwest. The only reason that I regularly read the long range forecast from the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is to see just what the Twilight Zone feels like to a true believer. I wonder how long it will be before they catch onto the fact that there’s a easterly on the way instead of spinning a catch all line “the potential for high pressure to be located close to the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.“.
