February 2024 – Objective LWT
February 2024 was a rather cyclonic month and a zonal westerly flow for much of the time. Despite this the gale index remained fairly subdued for most of it.
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February
February 2024 – Circulation
February 2024 was a cyclonic month across the IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK., with a strong broad W’SW gradient that stretched from central Atlantic into northeast Russia. The Icelandic low was elongated further east into the northern Norwegian sea (-9 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar), and the Azores high displaced to the southeast towards the Canaries (+4 hPa). Mean MSLPMSLP Mean sea level pressure is the pressure at sea level, or, when measured at a given elevation on land, the station pressure reduced to sea level assuming an isothermal layer at the station temperature. was below normal across the whole of IONA by as much as -9 hPA in northern Scotland.
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February 2024 – Weather Summary
Basically a wet and very mild February across the south and southeast of England, but colder and drier further north and west. Dull across England and Wales but brighter further north and east further north and west particularly the northeast of Scotland.
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Global temperatures long record run comes to an end
The mean global temperature for February 2024 was pipped into second place by February 2016. This brings to an end the incredible eight month consecutive run of record high mean temperatures. The estimates are from my DIY series that I calculate from 6 hourly NCEPNCEP The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities. gridded data. The daily means since the 12th of February took a bit of a nose dive (see image below) and allowed 2016 with a mean of 9.36°C to just nip ahead of 2024 with 9.34°C. I think my maverick calculations are unlikely to be duplicated when Copernicus publish their result in the coming week, but it will be a close run thing.
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February 2024 – second warmest since 1772
The mean temperature for February 2024 in Central England as far as I can make out was 7.77°C. That wasn’t just quite high enough to beat the mean of 7.9°C in 1779 into second place, but was still a very mild +2.8°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. for the month.
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Global Temperatures – February 2023
Five out of the seven Met Services around the world have finally published their estimated global temperature anomalies for February 2023. I swear they get slower at updating their estimates each year. The Europeans are always first off the mark to report these days, but the slowest by far are the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, who have only just published their estimate for January. The comparison graph (above) shows that the weak third dip in anomalies that started in 2016 has now all but fizzled out. Now that the double dip La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event has come to an abrupt end, and world ocean SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures at record highs, you can only expect global anomalies start to rocket through the rest of 2023.
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February 2023 – Global Temperatures
Global temperatures in February 2023 in my DIYDIY Do It Yourself Global temperature’s series were the fourth warmest since 1948. The 365 day mean temperature (see below), after flatlining since last spring is also showing signs of surging upwards despite the ongoing La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." trying to keep it in check.
The main driver behind this nascent surge in global temperatures seems to be rapid warming in the last few months of the northern subtropics despite a continued fall in temperatures at the tropics fueled by ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña.. This is the third surge in temperatures in the northern subtropics in recent years, the others were in 2016 and 2020, but the magnitude of this one might top them both despite the recent SSWSSW A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by as much as 50 °C in the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere. event.
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February Precipitation 1836-2023
Despite the dry one just gone, February’s have been getting ever so slowly that bit wetter at the rate of a millimetre per decade since 1836.
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February 2023 exceptionally anticyclonic?
Don’t get the idea that the positive MSLPMSLP Mean sea level pressure is the pressure at sea level, or, when measured at a given elevation on land, the station pressure reduced to sea level assuming an isothermal layer at the station temperature. anomalies across the SW of England of +13.8 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar so far this February are in anyway exceptional – on looking at all February’s back to 1948 using reanalysis data, I think I can safely say it’s not. Put it down to my naivety, I never realised just how varied the month of February, or any month for that matter, can be in IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK.. Take a look at the very anticyclonic nature and anomalies of Februaries in 1959 and 2012 are for example, or the anomalies and AEAE Anticyclonic Easterly of 1986, but there I’m straying off topic.
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