ENSO – July 2024

The central Pacific continues to cool, if rather hesitatingly over the last month.
Here’s the latest ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. forecast from the IRI.

ENSO Forecast

July-2024-quick-look

Published: July 19, 2024

A monthly summary of the status of El NiñoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, La NiñaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man.", and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

As of mid-July 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators also align with ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for Jul-Sep, and Aug-Oct, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Sep-Nov, 2024 through Dec-Feb, 2025, while for Jan-Mar, 2025 ENSO-neutral conditions become dominant (50% chance), and remain so during Feb-Apr, and Mar-May, 2025.
Similar to the most recent official CPCCPC The Climate Prediction Center is a United States federal agency that is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. The CPC is where meteorologists and oceanographers review climate and weather observations and data along with model results; assess their meaning, significance, and current status; and likely future climate impacts. ENSO Outlook (issued on July 11, 2024), the objective IRI model-based ENSO outlook forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for Jul-Sep 2024. However, there is a notable difference between the probability numbers in the early-month CPC and mid-month IRI ENSO forecasts. The CPC ENSO forecasts predict a 70% chance of La Niña onset in Aug-Oct 2024, which then persists with increasing probabilities reaching into the range from 66% to 81% during the boreal fall and winter seasons. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show a late onset of La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific (49% chance in Sep-Nov 2024), with persistence into the fall and early winter, though with very low probabilities ranging from 52% to 48%. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in Jan-Mar 2025, and remain dominant for the rest of the forecasts period. The low probability numbers reflect a high level of uncertainty in the forecasts, due to the relatively low skill of seasonal forecast models at this time of year. Therefore, these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution.

August 9, 2024

ENSO, July

ENSO – July 2024 Read More »

13 month streak comes to an end

The 13 month consecutive record breaking streak in the ERA5ERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). global temperature series has come to an end. The July anomaly of +0.68°C, although high, was lower than the +0.724°C of July 2023. The 12 month moving averages are also starting to show a lessening in the steepness of the rapid increase since the start of 2023. I’ve seen little mention of this news in the media which doesn’t surprise me that much. 😉

Despite being knocked off the top spot for warmest month in July, the daily global temperature for the 7th of August is still setting new records. It’s vying with 2023 for warmest and currently stands at +1.597°C above the pre-industrial LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..

August 9, 2024

Global Temperatures, July

13 month streak comes to an end Read More »

July 2024 – LWT

July 2024 was a very zonal month, and cyclonic at times, with below average MSLPMSLP Mean sea level pressure is the pressure at sea level, or, when measured at a given elevation on land, the station pressure reduced to sea level assuming an isothermal layer at the station temperature., but a little more anticyclonic towards the end. It looks like I’m going to have to search for missing charts on the 10th and 11th. Sunday the 28th looks a rare day when the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy couldn’t find a single frontal structure or trough near IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK..

August 4, 2024

Circulation, July, LWT

July 2024 – LWT Read More »

July 2024 – MSLP

Pressure was lower (-3 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar) close to the Azores during July, with higher than average pressure to the west this displaced the usual Azores high further west in the North Atlantic. This, combined with much lower than average across Greenland and Iceland, resulted in a fairly strong mean zonal W’SW flow across the Atlantic for the time of year, running from Canada to the Baltic across the British Isles.

August 3, 2024

Anomalies, July, MSLP

July 2024 – MSLP Read More »

July 2024 – CET

The first half of July was rather cold, but thanks to two warm spells in the second half of the month, the mean temperature for July ended up being 16.3°C, thats -0.5°C below the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. That makes two consecutive colder than average months, which happened as recently as 2023, when both July and August were colder than average.

August 2, 2024

CET, July

July 2024 – CET Read More »

July 2024 – Grimmess Index

The Grimness Index in July 2024 (50.7) was not quite as high as i#that in July 2023 (69.7) across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., but it still made for a mediocre month.

August 2, 2024

Grim, July

July 2024 – Grimmess Index Read More »

July 2024 – Weather Summary

July 2024 was rather cool and dull, wet in places in the south, but drier in central and Western Scotland.

Despite the 1,221 M difference in height AMSLAMSL The height Above Mean Sea Level. between them, temperatures at Heathrow (+0.2°C) and at CairngormCairn Gorm Cairn Gorm (Scottish Gaelic: An Càrn Gorm) is a mountain in the Scottish Highlands. It is part of the Cairngorms range and wider Grampian Mountains. With a summit elevation of 1,245 m (4,085 ft) above sea level, Cairn Gorm is classed as a Munro and is the seventh-highest mountain in the British Isles. (-0.1°C) were both very close to the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. for July.

August 2, 2024

July, Weather Summary

July 2024 – Weather Summary Read More »

July 2023 – Mean Pressure & anomalies

As always the mean pressure chart can reveal a lot about the weather, and in July 2023 it showed why it was so wet and changeable, with near average temperatures across the British Isles. It’s also apparent from it why Iceland was so cold due to the squeeze in the pressure gradient between higher than average pressure across Greenland, and lower than average pressure across NW Europe, resulting in a persistent and strong N or NENE North East flow of air across the island. It’s not so revealing about the causes of the heatwave across North Africa, which happened in a very slack pressure field in a ridge of high pressure that extended eastward into the Mediterranean from the Azores high.

July 2023 – Global temperature

It’s official – July 2023 was not only the warmest July on record, but it was also the warmest month on record too, and it did it by a massive margin of 0.16°C (in global temperature terms) from the July of 2016😮. That’s according to mean temperature estimates from my DIYDIY Do It Yourself global temperature series that extend back to 1948, and which I derive from reanalysis data I download from NOAANOAA NOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather..
Despite this I notice that the linear trend for July mean temperatures is still only 0.91°C per decade🤔.
The daily global mean temperature has been at unprecedented levels too for much of the summer and still is, but has now started to cool off as the globe cools down as we head to the boreal Autumn.

One of the main reasons why this summer 2023 is so warm is the sudden increase in temperatures across the tropics, no doubt brought about from the switch from La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." to El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific conditions this spring. This graph shows the sharp rise quite dramatically.

July 2023 – Highest temperatures across southern Europe

July 2023
Highest maximum temperatures [06-18]

As you can see the colour scale I use for temperature is dynamic rather than using a fixed set of colours as preferred by the BBCBBC The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is the national broadcaster of the United Kingdom, based at Broadcasting House in London. It is the world's oldest national broadcaster, and the largest broadcaster in the world by number of employees, employing over 22,000 staff in total, of whom approximately 19,000 are in public-sector broadcasting. and UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. It may not be transferable and directly comparable to any other month, but I find it much easier to find the hot and cold spots, and I can easily switch back to a fixed scale in software if necessary.

July 2023 – No 30°C maximum

As far as I can see in the SYNOPSYNOP SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. observations that I’ve downloaded for July 2023, and in complete contrast to July 2022 when temperatures exceeded 40°C, there wasn’t one single day when the maximum temperature [06-18] exceeded or equalled 30°C. Not many people know that😉

July 2023

A wet and rather dull month with temperatures close to average.