Sep 2024 – LWT
Circulation wise September was a rather blocked and meridional sort of month, with winds from N or E. Mainly anticyclonic from the 12th to the 19th, otherwise rather cyclonic at times, especially during the last week.
Months
Sep 2024 – Central England Temperatures
The mean temperature of 14.0°C made it the coldest since 2020, and 0.2°C below the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. This was the third below average month in 2024 so far in central England, in a year which globally almost certainly will be the warmest on record.
Sep 2024 – Central England Temperatures Read More »
Sep 2024 – MSLP Anomalies
Unusually high pressure in September to the southwest of Iceland and Greenland (+8 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar) and across Ukraine (+11 hPa). This effectively neutralised the usual Icelandic low, effectively pushing a band of lower pressure from northern France to the Black Sea. That left the British Isles in a col as far as mean pressure for the whole month was concerned, which doesn’t quite tell the whole story.
Sep 2024 – MSLP Anomalies Read More »
Sep 2024 – Temp Anomalies
A month at first glance dominated by colder than average temperatures. Yet another cold month across Iceland, with what’s fast becoming the normal NW-SE temperature gradient across the British Isles.
Sep 2024 – Temp Anomalies Read More »
20-23 September – Wet spell
Four days of thunderstorms, heavy showers and rain across the south all due to an upper cold pool that migrated westward.
20-23 September – Wet spell Read More »
Summer 2024 – Objective LWT
MSLPMSLP Mean sea level pressure is the pressure at sea level, or, when measured at a given elevation on land, the station pressure reduced to sea level assuming an isothermal layer at the station temperature. was below average for much of the summer [JJAJJA Meteorological Summer comprising the months June, July & August] with a strong mobile W or SW flow with an above average GIGI Gale Index. Brief anticyclonic interludes that got briefer as the summer went on. The NW flow in June backed into a SW’ly from the middle of July.
Summer 2024 – Objective LWT Read More »
August 2024 – Global Temperatures
After a break from being the warmest month on record in July, the ERA5ERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). series is back on track. This months anomaly of +0.712°C was again the warmest on record, but just a smidgeon (0.002°C) warmer than that of August 2023 (0.71°C).
It may be another record month, but the 12 month moving average has flattened out now, after sharply rising since mid 2022. As you would expect 2023 and 2024 are also neck and neck as the highest daily anomaly on record too. It looks to me that the global temperatures we’ve experienced over the last 18 months could become the new norm despite an imminent La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man.".
August 2024 – Global Temperatures Read More »
August 2024 – Temperature
A lot of strange goings on in mean temperature anomalies for August across this part of the northern hemisphere. One of them was a belt of colder than average temperatures that extended from the central Asia southwest across Pakistan, and then on westward across sub Saharan Africa. Another was the more intense pockets of cold air across British Columbia and Iceland. The North Atlantic was a little colder than average north of 55N, but much warmer than that to the south (+2C), the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. again ending up sandwiched again in a NW-SE temperature gradient.
August 2024 – Temperature Read More »
August 2024 – MSLP
Anomalies of -15 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar to the SE of Iceland displaced the usually shallower Icelandic low east to produce a broad SW’ly flow across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. and Ireland during August. The semi-permanent Azores high remained with pressure a little higher (+2 hpa) than average enhancing the flow.
August 2024 – MSLP Read More »
Summer 2024 – weather summary
Not much to say about summer [JJAJJA Meteorological Summer comprising the months June, July & August] other than it ended up a very average summer. That was because the cooler, cloudier, wetter conditions in the northwest, were almost perfectly cancelled out by the drier, sunnier and warmer weather in the east and southeast.
Summer 2024 – weather summary Read More »
23 Aug 2024 – Storm Lilian
Here are some random images, tables and animations that I posted regarding Storm Lilian to my Twitter account @xmetman. Nothing particularly devastating about the winds or the rain from the storm itself, which the Met OfficeUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy should really have never named. It was gone in a flash, and although there were gusts in excess of 70 mph on the Lancashire coast, only eight SYNOPSYNOP SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. stations recorded a gale. Gale Index wise the storm didn’t register above the 200 mark because of its size, with the extratropical cyclone that had been Hurricane Ernesto scoring much higher earlier in the week. I should have written a piece about Ernesto, but when you have so few followers as I have, I thought what’s the point 😪
23 Aug 2024 – Storm Lilian Read More »
ENSO – July 2024
The central Pacific continues to cool, if rather hesitatingly over the last month.
Here’s the latest ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. forecast from the IRI.
ENSO Forecast
July-2024-quick-look
Published: July 19, 2024
A monthly summary of the status of El NiñoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, La NiñaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man.", and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
As of mid-July 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators also align with ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for Jul-Sep, and Aug-Oct, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Sep-Nov, 2024 through Dec-Feb, 2025, while for Jan-Mar, 2025 ENSO-neutral conditions become dominant (50% chance), and remain so during Feb-Apr, and Mar-May, 2025.
Similar to the most recent official CPCCPC The Climate Prediction Center is a United States federal agency that is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. The CPC is where meteorologists and oceanographers review climate and weather observations and data along with model results; assess their meaning, significance, and current status; and likely future climate impacts. ENSO Outlook (issued on July 11, 2024), the objective IRI model-based ENSO outlook forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for Jul-Sep 2024. However, there is a notable difference between the probability numbers in the early-month CPC and mid-month IRI ENSO forecasts. The CPC ENSO forecasts predict a 70% chance of La Niña onset in Aug-Oct 2024, which then persists with increasing probabilities reaching into the range from 66% to 81% during the boreal fall and winter seasons. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show a late onset of La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific (49% chance in Sep-Nov 2024), with persistence into the fall and early winter, though with very low probabilities ranging from 52% to 48%. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in Jan-Mar 2025, and remain dominant for the rest of the forecasts period. The low probability numbers reflect a high level of uncertainty in the forecasts, due to the relatively low skill of seasonal forecast models at this time of year. Therefore, these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution.
13 month streak comes to an end
The 13 month consecutive record breaking streak in the ERA5ERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). global temperature series has come to an end. The July anomaly of +0.68°C, although high, was lower than the +0.724°C of July 2023. The 12 month moving averages are also starting to show a lessening in the steepness of the rapid increase since the start of 2023. I’ve seen little mention of this news in the media which doesn’t surprise me that much. 😉
Despite being knocked off the top spot for warmest month in July, the daily global temperature for the 7th of August is still setting new records. It’s vying with 2023 for warmest and currently stands at +1.597°C above the pre-industrial LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..
13 month streak comes to an end Read More »
July 2024 – LWT
July 2024 was a very zonal month, and cyclonic at times, with below average MSLPMSLP Mean sea level pressure is the pressure at sea level, or, when measured at a given elevation on land, the station pressure reduced to sea level assuming an isothermal layer at the station temperature., but a little more anticyclonic towards the end. It looks like I’m going to have to search for missing charts on the 10th and 11th. Sunday the 28th looks a rare day when the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy couldn’t find a single frontal structure or trough near IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK..
July 2024 – MSLP
Pressure was lower (-3 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar) close to the Azores during July, with higher than average pressure to the west this displaced the usual Azores high further west in the North Atlantic. This, combined with much lower than average across Greenland and Iceland, resulted in a fairly strong mean zonal W’SW flow across the Atlantic for the time of year, running from Canada to the Baltic across the British Isles.
July 2024 – CET
The first half of July was rather cold, but thanks to two warm spells in the second half of the month, the mean temperature for July ended up being 16.3°C, thats -0.5°C below the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. That makes two consecutive colder than average months, which happened as recently as 2023, when both July and August were colder than average.
July 2024 – Grimmess Index
The Grimness Index in July 2024 (50.7) was not quite as high as i#that in July 2023 (69.7) across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., but it still made for a mediocre month.
July 2024 – Grimmess Index Read More »
July 2024 – Weather Summary
July 2024 was rather cool and dull, wet in places in the south, but drier in central and Western Scotland.
Despite the 1,221 M difference in height AMSLAMSL The height Above Mean Sea Level. between them, temperatures at Heathrow (+0.2°C) and at CairngormCairn Gorm Cairn Gorm (Scottish Gaelic: An Cà rn Gorm) is a mountain in the Scottish Highlands. It is part of the Cairngorms range and wider Grampian Mountains. With a summit elevation of 1,245 m (4,085 ft) above sea level, Cairn Gorm is classed as a Munro and is the seventh-highest mountain in the British Isles. (-0.1°C) were both very close to the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. for July.
July 2024 – Weather Summary Read More »
May warmer than June in 2024
In Central England, May 2024 ended up being warmer than it was in June. The mean temperature for May was 14.1°C, whilst the mean for June was just 14.0°C. This is only the third time this has occurred since the series began in 1659.
In Stornoway, June 2024 was an unprecedented -1.4°C colder than May 2024. The climatological records there go back 151 years. June itself was the second coldest on record, and just 0.3°C warmer than the record cold June of 1952. June was also the dullest on record in a 95 year long series.
In StrathpefferStrathpeffer Strathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. the mean temperatures in June was -1.1ºC lower than May, but my record only started in 2022. So much for the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy saying that temperatures in the first part of the month were nothing unusual. 🤨
May warmer than June in 2024 Read More »
June 2024 – Objective LWT
A mobile, and at times a quite cyclonic month for June across IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. started anticyclonic enough, but the flow steadily veered more northwesterly up until the 11th, when a low tracked slowly eastward from the 14th to the 18th leaving a northerly behind it. The circulation gradually became more southwesterly until the 24th, when a brief anticyclonic couple of days gave way to a low that tracked northeastward across the northwest of the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. on 27th & 28th, with winds veering more northwesterly, as high pressure built in from the southwest.
June 2024 – Objective LWT Read More »
June 2024 – Mean Pressure and anomalies
Much lower than average pressure to the north (-8 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar), and higher than average pressure in the central Atlantic (+5 hPa), produced a W’NW flow and lower than average temperatures across IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK..
June 2024 – Mean Pressure and anomalies Read More »
June 2024 – Mean Temperature anomalies
Mean temperatures were close to or a little below average across IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK.. A cold trough extended SSE from central Greenland, through Iceland and on into Iberia and southern France. Warmer than average air dominated the central Atlantic, and in a band running from northern Scandinavia, down into eastern Russia, Turkey and on into north Africa.
June 2024 – Mean Temperature anomalies Read More »
June 2024 – Weather Summary
Temperatures were just a little below average, a cold spell in the first half of the month was cancelled out by a cold spell in the second. Rainfall was below average in the east and well below average south of 53°N. Sunshine was close to or a little above average in most places, but it was dull month across Northern Ireland and NW Scotland.
June 2024 – Weather Summary Read More »
June 2024 – The coldest in Central England since 2015
The mean temperature for June 2024 in Central England was 14.0°C, which was -0.6°C below the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., and as far as I can make out, the coldest June since 2015.
June 2024 – The coldest in Central England since 2015 Read More »