ECMWF

I have added some extra functionality to my ERA5ERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). application so that I can download and access latest the ERAERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). 5 daily SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures anomalies, as well as the daily 2m temperature data. SST data starts in 1979 but there’s enough of it to draw a scatter graph and see what correlation there exists between the two if you couldn’t already guess that there would be anything other than a very strong one. As you can see from the chart above my guess was correct 😜. I’ve coloured the series red for all dates after the 1 January 2023 to highlight the surge in SST in the last year or so. I will calculate and add the correlation coefficient at a later date, or as the say in this part of the world I’ll do that directly.

I’ve added a chart of 7 and a 365 day moving averages to view the sudden explosive rise in SST over the last 12 months. I would say that most charts I see bandied about regarding this rise in SST use data that is not strictly “global”, extending as the ER5 data does from 60N to 60S. I would have thought that it might be better if the global value would be more accurate if it were calculated for all oceans, regardless of sea ice. It might not be particularly scientific but why couldn’t they use a value of zero for any grid point that had sea ice present?

Now that I finally have some quality real-time global temperature data to work with, courtesy of the ECMWFECMWF The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data., I thought that I would construct a couple of graphs you wouldn’t find in their Climate Pulse web application. The first graph that occurred to me to construct was one that plotted daily anomalies using the 1850-1900 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. as a baseline for the pre-industrial era, and overlay a 365 day moving average on it. I then overlay a 30 year linear trend over that and extrapolate a linear trend until it meets the y axis at 1.5°C. This gives a date of the 15th April 2031 when 1.5°C is reached. The IPCCIPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change. It was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, and later endorsed by United Nations General Assembly. in contrast estimate global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C around 2040. This is what they say In their report:-

Human-induced warming has already reached about 1°C above pre-industrial levels at the time of writing of this Special Report. By the decade 2006–2015, human activity had warmed the world by 0.87°C (±0.12°C) compared to pre-industrial times (1850–1900). If the current warming rate continues, the world would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C around 2040.

IPCC Report

To explore the difference I have added another viewer to my application that displays a rolling 10 year mean anomaly, and then do the same as I did in the first graph, that is add a 30 year linear tend and then extrapolate it forward. This gives a date of the 8th February 2040 when 1.5°C is realised and in line with the IPCC estimate.

In light of the significant increases in SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures in all the world’s oceans in the last year, and the resulting surge in global temperatures it may be that 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will occur much earlier than the IPCC expected last year. As you can see using the latest global data for the 29th of February 2024 using a linear trend on a 365 day moving average 1.5°C will be reached on the 15th of April 2031, almost seven years earlier than 2040. I think using a 365 day average is much more sensitive and accurate than one based on a longer 10 year rolling average. Thanks to El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and the surge in SST over the last 12 months, daily global temperatures have already been above the 1.5°C threshold for much of that time. A La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event is expected later this year, this should help reduce global SST and air temperatures a little you would think, but even if and when this happens global temperatures still won’t be too far off the 1.5°C mark.

Another day another application. This time a viewer to display ERA5ERA ERA stands for 'ECMWF Re-Analysis' and refers to a series of research projects at ECMWF which produced various datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, etcetera). daily global temperature data from Copernicus. So much talk at the moment about how the daily temperatures have been exceeding the 1.5°C threshold a goal that was set in the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of keeping warming “well below” 2C and aiming to limit it to 1.5C“. As you can see that hasn’t been happening much in the last year, to say the least. The ERA5 data only extends back to 1940, so finding, or more correctly guessing at what the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. was for the series between 1850 and 1900 was vital to get an accurate anomaly from the pre-industrial age. Reading between the lines of an article I found on the on the Copernicus website I came up with the figure of 0.9°C. That’s the difference between the 1851-1900 and the 1991-2020 LTA and the offset I’ve applied to the first and the third graph in this article. It’s not specified anywhere that I can find that this is what it is, but it’s my best guess.

As you can see the 365 day (leading) running mean has now also exceeded 1.5°C.

The program can also display daily data from the Arctic and Antarctic, Northern and Southern Hemisphere, and the Tropics. Still some work to do on it and some new ways to display the data but that’ll have to do for now.

Again I would like to thank Professor Eliot Jacobson for giving me the link to the raw data on the Climate Reanalyzer web site, and of course to ECMWFECMWF The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. and Copernicus for generating these global estimates from their reanalysis data in the first place.