ENSO – July 2024

The central Pacific continues to cool, if rather hesitatingly over the last month.
Here’s the latest ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. forecast from the IRI.

ENSO Forecast

July-2024-quick-look

Published: July 19, 2024

A monthly summary of the status of El NiñoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, La NiñaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man.", and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

As of mid-July 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators also align with ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for Jul-Sep, and Aug-Oct, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Sep-Nov, 2024 through Dec-Feb, 2025, while for Jan-Mar, 2025 ENSO-neutral conditions become dominant (50% chance), and remain so during Feb-Apr, and Mar-May, 2025.
Similar to the most recent official CPCCPC The Climate Prediction Center is a United States federal agency that is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. The CPC is where meteorologists and oceanographers review climate and weather observations and data along with model results; assess their meaning, significance, and current status; and likely future climate impacts. ENSO Outlook (issued on July 11, 2024), the objective IRI model-based ENSO outlook forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for Jul-Sep 2024. However, there is a notable difference between the probability numbers in the early-month CPC and mid-month IRI ENSO forecasts. The CPC ENSO forecasts predict a 70% chance of La Niña onset in Aug-Oct 2024, which then persists with increasing probabilities reaching into the range from 66% to 81% during the boreal fall and winter seasons. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show a late onset of La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific (49% chance in Sep-Nov 2024), with persistence into the fall and early winter, though with very low probabilities ranging from 52% to 48%. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in Jan-Mar 2025, and remain dominant for the rest of the forecasts period. The low probability numbers reflect a high level of uncertainty in the forecasts, due to the relatively low skill of seasonal forecast models at this time of year. Therefore, these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution.

August 9, 2024

ENSO, July

ENSO – July 2024 Read More »

The most anticyclonic January – 1992

It looks like this January (2024) could turn into a very anticyclonic month from this weekend, so I thought I would take a look back in the objective LWTLWT Lamb Weather Types are often used in UK-based analyses, with individual weather patterns based on the eight primary cardinal directions (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW) plus cyclonic (C), anticyclonic (A) and unclassified (U) types. records, which started in 1871, and found that January 1992 was the most anticyclonic on record., although despite it being so anticyclonic, it never really managed to generate more than a few easterly days at the start of the third week.

MSLPMSLP Mean sea level pressure is the pressure at sea level, or, when measured at a given elevation on land, the station pressure reduced to sea level assuming an isothermal layer at the station temperature. that month across the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. got close to 1050 hPahPa A Hectopascal is the SI unit of pressure and identical to the Millibar on the 26th as you can see from the chart for 12 UTCUTC Coordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT)., the highest on that chart was 1049.0 hPa at Cynwyd in Denbighshire. I only have main synoptic hour data so it may have broken through 1050 hPa. Notice that they’re also plotted SYNOPSYNOP SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. reports from Cape Wrath, Butt of Lewis and Binbrook on that chart, those were the days 😉

One other point about January 1992 is that it was also a El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific month.

The latest Oceanic Niño Index figures

The latest El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific is going great guns in the central pacific, no doubt helped along by a surge in SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures in the Pacific as well as in all the other oceans of the world. Because of the complicated rules, this is the first time I’ve seen El Nino conditions confirmed, and which started with the three month mean of SST from May, June and July of 2023.

September 2023 – Global Temperatures

For the fourth month in a row global temperatures have set another new monthly record for warmth. September is perhaps the most remarkable of the four in my DIYDIY Do It Yourself global temperatures series, exceeding the previous highest in 2016 by a massive, in global temperature terms that is, of 0.24°C. The question that immediately springs to mind is when will this run of new extremes come to an end? Maybe when it comes full cycle in June of 2024, or who knows if the El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific is still running it will just continue.

Currently, on the 30th of September, the daily mean global temperature is in open water on the graph above way higher than in any of the previous daily temperatures since 1948. What’s driving the sharp rise in global temperatures are the higher than average SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean. The La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event which had been keeping a check on global temperatures until earlier this year has gone, replaced by a strengthening El Nino.

September 2023 – ENSO

El NiñoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024).

In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices in the central and eastern Pacific were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-3.4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3 was +1.8°C, and Niño1+2 was +3.4°C. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased compared to June, but remained positive, in association with anomalous warmth across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Starting in mid-July, low-level winds were anomalously westerly over the western equatorial Pacific, while anomalous easterlies prevailed over the eastern Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection continued to be enhanced around the International Date Line and was weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia. The equatorial SOISOI The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index. The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti (in the Pacific) and Darwin, Australia (on the Indian Ocean). and the traditional SOI were both negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.

Courtesy CPC

I have smartened up my ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. application a little and downloaded the latest data. The monthly anomaly for August when published (the average of the three months July through to September) will confirm the current El Niño event started in June, but the rules used by NOAANOAA NOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather., if I remember them correctly, are that you need three of those three month averages above +0.5°C before this happens. The ENSO rules and stats are always a bit murky.
Here is another view of the weekly data that my ENSO application also displays.

ENSO and the WMO

For the first time in three years, three monthly average SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures in the ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. 3.4 region are above average. Depending on whose rules you follow this may be the precursor to an El NiñoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific later this year when SST get 0.5°C above the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. It’s all rather complicated when they begin and end, the Americans have one method, so too do the BOMBOM The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM or BoM) is an executive agency of the Australian Government responsible for providing weather services to Australia and surrounding areas. in Australia and the JMAJMA The Japan Meteorological Agency (気象庁, Kishō-chō), abbreviated JMA, is an agency of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. in Japan. Isn’t sorting problems concerning climate and weather like this what the WMOWMO The World Meteorological Organisation is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics. exist for?

Global Temperatures – February 2023

Five out of the seven Met Services around the world have finally published their estimated global temperature anomalies for February 2023. I swear they get slower at updating their estimates each year. The Europeans are always first off the mark to report these days, but the slowest by far are the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, who have only just published their estimate for January. The comparison graph (above) shows that the weak third dip in anomalies that started in 2016 has now all but fizzled out. Now that the double dip La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event has come to an abrupt end, and world ocean SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures at record highs, you can only expect global anomalies start to rocket through the rest of 2023.

March 25, 2023

ENSO, February, Global Temperatures, SST

Global Temperatures – February 2023 Read More »

La Niña comes to an abrupt end

The double dip La NiñaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event that’s been going on since August of 2020 has come to an abrupt end. This means that global temperatures will probably start running riot without the cooling effect La Niña brought to the central Pacific. The NOAANOAA NOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather. synopsis for the next few months reads: La Niña has ended and ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña.-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023.

March 25, 2023

ENSO, Global Temperatures

La Niña comes to an abrupt end Read More »

Weather patterns may lead to flooding in February, Met Office warns

February 2023 is likely to be the fifth driest February since 1931 using gridded data for England and Wales from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, and in central England it could well be the second driest. It’s been drier than average thanks to persistent high pressure, which although not uncommon in February, is not usually as long lasting as its been this year.

I can see how the Guardian used Will Lang, head of situational awareness at the UKMO, to manipulate another climate extremes scare story back in November. Yes it was significant at the time that the three-month forecast had not reached February yet, but I think we read far too much into tele-connections such as the QBOQBO The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found., NAONAO The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic., AOAO The Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic pole north of 20 degrees latitude. It is an important mode of climate variability for the Northern Hemisphere. The southern hemisphere analogue is called the Antarctic oscillation or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal sea-level pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45° N., ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. and of course the SSWSSW A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by as much as 50 °C in the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere., these days, thinking we are anywhere close to understanding the complexities of our global weather system, and this Guardian story illustrates this fact perfectly. The threat of flooding has not gone away, but it’s likely that it’ll be the lack of rainfall that will dominate the weather news across Europe this coming spring and summer.

February 28, 2023

Climate, ENSO, SSW

Weather patterns may lead to flooding in February, Met Office warns Read More »

NOAA GlobalTemp v5.1

NOAANOAA NOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather. have just updated their global temperatures series. The latest version, version 5.1 differs from 5.0 in two major ways:

5.1 extends back to 1850 (vs. 1880)
5.1 has complete coverage of all land and ocean areas for the entire period of record

This chart extends back to 1950 shows the monthly anomalies coloured by the ENSOENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. status for that month. As you can see it’s not written in stone that a a La NinaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event coincides with low anomalies, or that an El NinoEl Niño El Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific event coincides with all the warm spikes in global monthly anomalies either.

February 23, 2023

ENSO, Global Temperatures

NOAA GlobalTemp v5.1 Read More »