For the first time in three years, three monthly average SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures in the ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. 3.4 region are above average. Depending on whose rules you follow this may be the precursor to an El NiñoEl NiñoEl Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific later this year when SST get 0.5°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. It’s all rather complicated when they begin and end, the Americans have one method, so too do the BOMBOMThe Bureau of Meteorology (BOM or BoM) is an executive agency of the Australian Government responsible for providing weather services to Australia and surrounding areas. in Australia and the JMAJMAThe Japan Meteorological Agency (気象庁, Kishō-chō), abbreviated JMA, is an agency of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. in Japan. Isn’t sorting problems concerning climate and weather like this what the WMOWMOThe World Meteorological Organisation is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics. exist for?
Five out of the seven Met Services around the world have finally published their estimated global temperature anomalies for February 2023. I swear they get slower at updating their estimates each year. The Europeans are always first off the mark to report these days, but the slowest by far are the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, who have only just published their estimate for January. The comparison graph (above) shows that the weak third dip in anomalies that started in 2016 has now all but fizzled out. Now that the double dip La NinaLa NiñaLa Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event has come to an abrupt end, and world ocean SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures at record highs, you can only expect global anomalies start to rocket through the rest of 2023.
The double dip La NiñaLa NiñaLa Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event that’s been going on since August of 2020 has come to an abrupt end. This means that global temperatures will probably start running riot without the cooling effect La Niña brought to the central Pacific. The NOAANOAANOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather. synopsis for the next few months reads: La Niña has ended and ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña.-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023.
The fact the Antarctic Sea Ice extent was going to set a new record low minimum was never in doubt for much of this summer season. The sea ice extent dipped to 1.766 million square kilometres on the 19th of February to take the record from the previous lowest of last year.
February 2023 is likely to be the fifth driest February since 1931 using gridded data for England and Wales from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, and in central England it could well be the second driest. It’s been drier than average thanks to persistent high pressure, which although not uncommon in February, is not usually as long lasting as its been this year.
I can see how the Guardian used Will Lang, head of situational awareness at the UKMO, to manipulate another climate extremes scare story back in November. Yes it was significant at the time that the three-month forecast had not reached February yet, but I think we read far too much into tele-connections such as the QBOQBOThe quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found., NAONAOThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic., AOAOThe Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic pole north of 20 degrees latitude. It is an important mode of climate variability for the Northern Hemisphere. The southern hemisphere analogue is called the Antarctic oscillation or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal sea-level pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45° N., ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. and of course the SSWSSWA sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by as much as 50 °C in the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere., these days, thinking we are anywhere close to understanding the complexities of our global weather system, and this Guardian story illustrates this fact perfectly. The threat of flooding has not gone away, but it’s likely that it’ll be the lack of rainfall that will dominate the weather news across Europe this coming spring and summer.
NOAANOAANOAA is an agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather. have just updated their global temperatures series. The latest version, version 5.1 differs from 5.0 in two major ways:
5.1 extends back to 1850 (vs. 1880)
5.1 has complete coverage of all land and ocean areas for the entire period of record
This chart extends back to 1950 shows the monthly anomalies coloured by the ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. status for that month. As you can see it’s not written in stone that a a La NinaLa NiñaLa Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." event coincides with low anomalies, or that an El NinoEl NiñoEl Niño 'The Boy' is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific event coincides with all the warm spikes in global monthly anomalies either.
Dear Diary It’s a slow job cooling the oceans with a two-week cold spell. SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures are still between 1°C and 3°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in waters that surround IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK., and the cold snap has only done a little to lower them from where they were at the start of November.
Dear Diary, There’s no getting away from it that no matter which direction cold air will affect the country, be it from the east, northeast or north in the coming days, it will have to come across seas with temperatures that are several degrees above their LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. for this time of year. Things are starting to cooling down though and it’s good to see the reappearance of the cold blob in mid-Atlantic (see graph of SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures below) where SST have been falling since the end of September, and the cooler waters in the Norwegian Sea to the north of the Faroes and Shetlands are also managing to hang in there as well.
Two distinct areas of lower than average temperatures split by the above average warmth of the Baltic Sea this lunchtime. Notice how the fog that’s reluctant to clear over Ireland is depressing the temperature.
Spare a thought for those people working on the rigs in the North Sea tonight. The severe gale force southeasterly has whipped waves of 7 M in height in the last few days, with gusts well in excess of hurricane force 12 thrown in for good measure.
