The recent surge in temperatures across Europe in January can be seen in a sharp rise in estimated mean temperatures across the northern extratropics in the daily anomaly chart for the last year. The surge seems to have started shortly before Christmas in my DIYDIYDo It Yourself global series, and is still going on in around that zonal region, with anomalies now around 1.2°C higher than the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. The effects of the North American cold wave and the cold snap across Europe are also visible as a blue down spike at the very end of November.
Just as I found in the gridded UK data series from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy that 2022 wasn’t the warmest 12 months on record, I also find that it isn’t the warmest 365 day period in the CETCETCentral England Temperature series either. That accolade belongs to the 365 days between the third of May 2006 and the second of May 2007, with a mean temperature of 11.71°C which is far higher than the 11.15°C temperature for the year 2022 in central England. It may not mean much to most people, but I think it makes a bit of a mockery of all the hoo-ha that we’ve had to endure recently from the media about 2022 being the warmest year, when in reality it occurred almost 15 years earlier both in the CET series and the gridded series.
If you spend some time grubbing around in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. gridded temperature series from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy that extends back to the year 1884 as I do, you might find that the highest mean temperature for a 12 month period didn’t actually occur in the year 2022, but the 12 month period that ended in April 2007. The mean temperature of 10.41°C was considerably higher than that of 10.03°C for 2022 that has been bandied about so much in recents days by the media. There’s no reason to think that the UKMO weren’t aware of this fact, but they obviously kept shtum about it, not wanting to detract from making an even bigger splash with a headline “Warmest year on record” or the climate crisis version of it “Hottest year ever!“.
23 Dec 2022 12 UTCUTCCoordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). analysis
Dear Diary A lot of sensational reporting going on in the media about the low that’s been undergoing cyclogenesis in the eastern parts of the Great Lakes today, and the cold wave that’s introducing Arctic air across much of North America in its wake, as the low tracks NENENorth East’ward into Canada. BBCBBCThe British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is the national broadcaster of the United Kingdom, based at Broadcasting House in London. It is the world's oldest national broadcaster, and the largest broadcaster in the world by number of employees, employing over 22,000 staff in total, of whom approximately 19,000 are in public-sector broadcasting. News seems content to report temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit, perhaps because it makes the negative numbers even larger. Here are a few of the phrases that I’ve picked up from the BBC reports.
Weather Bomb
Bomb cyclone
Flash freezing
Brutal cold
The cold front has certainly dropped temperatures as it’s raced through. In my experience wind chills of -40°C or lower are very severe, but far from unprecedented across North America, and ones like this usually occur in most winters, but what the hell do I know. Another thing I don’t know is if the NWSNWSNational weather service definition, an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that is responsible for meteorological observations. has named the culprit low, perhaps it has descended into the realms of lunacy as most of its European counterpart Met Services have.
Dear Diary What have the Americans got against releasing their observational data? They are so generous with every other kind of weather data they generate, be it satellite imagery, SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures, sea ice, ENSOENSOEl Niño–Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña., CO2CO2Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO2) is a chemical compound made up of molecules that each have one carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms. It is found in the gas state at room temperature. and their GFSGFSThe Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service.NWPNWPNumerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. data, but for some reason the NWSNWSNational weather service definition, an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that is responsible for meteorological observations. don’t, and have never liked sharing observational data in the form of SYNOPSYNOPSYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. observations, which to me seems a great pity. As you can see the observations they do release makes for a very thin network indeed across America when compared to the AWSAWSAutomatic Weather Station network of their Canadian counterparts north of the 50th parallel. Over the years it’s got worse with fewer and fewer stations being released, they love METARsMETARMETAR is a format for reporting weather information. A METAR weather report is predominantly used by aircraft pilots, and by meteorologists, who use aggregated METAR information to assist in weather forecasting. Raw METAR is the most common format in the world for the transmission of observational weather data. of course but these are a poor substitute for SYNOP observations, and really for aviation and not meteorological purposes.
Dear Diary Believe it, or believe it not diary, the recent cold spell that has just come to an end was the joint sixth longest cold spell since 1772 in Central England. The Gannt chart lists all cold spells that lasted at least 10 days, with daily mean anomalies of -4.9°C or lower. The table on the left lists all cold spells ranked using the dense ranking method. That’s based on anomalies calculated against the 1878-2021 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. It’s no wonder the Daily Mail was getting hot under the collar about the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy’s response to it and I think it’s longevity caught many people out. Cold spells of that length are not that common, it might not have been as severe as some in the past, but it lasted ten days from the 8th to the 17th of December.
What are the differences, if any, between freezing rain and glazed ice? Well as far as I can see the end results are the same, surfaces covered with clear ice, but whereas freezing rain comes from supercooled water, glazed ice (also widely known as clear or black ice) doesn’t. At this point I would normally cite the Wiki entry for freezing rain and another for glazed ice, but I won’t because the authors have clearly mixed up information about the two and also the processes that cause them. Suffice it to say, from someone who remembers well the freezing rain in March 1969, and walked along an avenue of trees that suffered the effects in the hills above Sheffield, I beleive freezing rain occurs much more rarely than glazed ice does, and the Meteorological Glossary makes the distinction between the two clear. The media isn’t at all interested in the difference between the two of course, and it’s rather like if we have fog and temperatures are below freezing then it must be freezing fog – wrong again – but that’s a story for another day.
Dear Diary It’s a slow job cooling the oceans with a two-week cold spell. SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures are still between 1°C and 3°C above the LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in waters that surround IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK., and the cold snap has only done a little to lower them from where they were at the start of November.
Dear Diary We are more or less halfway through December 2022 now, and the latest mean temperatures for the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. (-3.49°C estimated) indicate that currently 2022 is the coldest since 2010 (the coldest December on record), and the fourth coldest since 1884 behind 2010, 1981 and 1890. Of course there is the matter of the second half of the month to come, and these low values are bound to take a big knock early next week as very mild air is set to make a temporary return.
Dear Diary After a fiddly bit morning of programming, I can finally reveal that 2022 WILL be the warmest in the Central England daily series which started in 1772. That of course assumes that the rest of the month, from the 11th onward, has anomalies no higher than -3.5°C for each of the next 21 days. That’s not impossible of course, but even after a cold start such as we’ve seen this December, the mean temperature for the first ten days is still only 2.37°C below the December LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., which would mean that the very low anomalies of the last few days would have to continue for the rest of the month. If this finding is true for Central England, I think it’s more than likely it’ll be true of the gridded data for the whole UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as well. I found it easier to write that small program than to sit down and work it out with pen, paper and calculator, which must say something about how my brain works.
Sunday, 11 December 2022 – 12 UTCUTCCoordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). temperature anomalies
Dear Diary Another very cold day across all parts of IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. this Sunday, exceptionally so across parts of the south with anomalies as low as -10°C this lunchtime, as this cold spell continues. Many areas will see an ice day today with temperatures remaining sub-zero this afternoon. Finally, the northern Highlands of Scotland, have lost that persistent and tenacious east northeast wind of the last week that has been funneling a feed of milder winds into the Moray Firth. No doubt it’s just taking a breather and will be back later in the week.
Dear Diary I thought I’d take a look back at how the start of this December (2022) compares with that of 2010, the coldest December in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. in the gridded data series that extends back to 1884. I’m afraid it’s no contest so far, at least in the first eleven days of the month. It’s funny living in Devon as we did in 2010, it didn’t feel at all like it was going to end up the coldest December on record. We certainly had a couple of falls of snow, but the snow wasn’t as powdery, or drift as it did in the intense cold wave of January 1987. I’m beginning to sound like that episode of Vicar of Dibley now so I’ll stop.
Hi Diary The Moray Firth hot-spot is alive and kicking this morning! After dipping to -1°C by midnight, temperatures in StrathpefferStrathpefferStrathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. are close to 3°C by 8 am, after a moderate easterly wind picked up at 4 am and blew milder air into the ‘funnel’ that is the Moray Firth. The rumours of a giant alien spaceship crashing into the Firth over 8,000 years ago and causing a massive Tsunami could well be true, and last night they must have fired up the engines. The spread of anomalies across the country this morning is quite impressive across IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. once again, from -12°C across the south, to +1°C across the NENENorth East of Scotland. There’s a good covering of snow on the braes of Ben Wyvis above 200 M, but it’s just sleet or wet snow down in the strath, and very reminiscent of the last few winters in this part of the world.
Dear Diary A fair bit of fog over Ireland still lingering in the river valleys such as the Shannon well into this afternoon. Temperatures are still well below freezing in places, so some of it could be of the freezing variety. CBCBCumulonimbus cloud. Well-developed cumulonimbus clouds are characterized by a flat, anvil-like top tops across the NW and N of Scotland as well as a line of them running into Liverpool Bay. It looks like the W’NW wind blowing over Exmoor and Dartmoor is triggering some downstream stratus across east Devon, but I could be wrong.
Dear Diary Not feeling particularly cold this morning here in StrathpefferStrathpefferStrathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. with temperatures close to 3°C. No measurable rain since the second of the month, but a few spots of rain in what little wind there is this morning. There’s a coating of snow on Ben Wyvis, but nothing down here in the strath. Hoping for something from this second cold front later this afternoon, but not counting on it.
Dear Diary, Carol Kirkwood reckons that “We’ve got a widespread frost”. Not really Carol that’s not a widespread frost, if you look at a chart of the 18-06 minimum temperatures this morning (an air) frost has occurred in places where high ground has given shelter from the wind and helped to keep skies clear of cloud across southern Scotland, and parts of western England. We may have a widespread frost later in the week by the looks of it. I would agree that there may have been a widespread ground frost, but that wasn’t what she was talking about.
The Great Smog of London, or Great Smog of 1952, was a severe air pollution event that affected London, England, in December 1952. A period of unusually cold weather, combined with an anticyclone and windless conditions, collected airborne pollutants—mostly arising from the use of coal—to form a thick layer of smog over the city. It lasted from Friday 5 December to Tuesday 9 December 1952, then dispersed quickly when the weather changed.
The smog caused major disruption by reducing visibility and even penetrating indoor areas, far more severely than previous smog events, called “pea-soupers“. Government medical reports in the weeks following the event estimated that up to 4,000 people had died as a direct result of the smog and 100,000 more were made ill by the smog’s effects on the human respiratory tract. More recent research suggests tha
This looks far more of a threat of heavy snow than does tomorrow’s snow showers across the North of Scotland. Milder air pushing up against the cold block across the north, and a vigorous low moving eastward across the North of France. It’s always been the perfect set up for a lot of snow in the past, that is with the usual caveats; away from the coast and over higher ground; but maybe not exclusively in this case. Even at T+240 the GFSGFSThe Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. and ECMWFECMWFThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. are in quite close agreement about it, but this is of course is in the realms of science fiction still at this range.
Dear Diary, A lovely image of the first cold front that straddles the north coast of Scotland early this afternoon. The stratiform cloud marks the boundary between the colder, showery and cellular cloud to the north. The snowy Cairngorms are also clearly visible to the south of it.
Dear Diary, The first rather modest signs of the much heralded colder weather arriving in the Shetlands this morning. The cloud from front this will thwart the frost we might have seen tonight, instead of low cloud from the east, it’ll be low cloud from the north. Sometimes you forget that you’re on an island and the weather is dominated by the sea. Temperatures did their usual trick in the strath overnight: 0.1°C at midnight with clear skies, winds back into the east and low cloud rolls up the Cromarty Firth turning it cloudy, temperatures rise to 2°C at dawn, skies clear again as the wind backs more to the north, temperatures fall back to 1°C by 10am. This is a very common occurrence here and must be at least the third occasion it’s happened this Autumn.
Dear Diary, The days of air frostair frostAn air frost occurs when the temperature of the air falls below 0.0°C and ground frost were well down on their respective LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. for all regions, thanks to the very mild weather. I would have like to have added a colour contoured map but the Met OfficeUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy don’t seem to generate them anymore for frost. Still plenty of sites still to report their first frost, some of them inland as well. My SYNOPSYNOPSYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. records are never guaranteed to be 100% complete, so I may have missed the odd one because either the value or the whole observation at 06 UTCUTCCoordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). was missing. I could now, at least for the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. that is, generate totals from the 21-09 UTC extremes now that they are finally being included.
Dear Diary, The lowest anomalies at lunchtime, in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. at least, where in the foggy areas across Wales, central and southwest England. Anomalies across Scandinavia were close to average, but it was much colder further across Germany, Poland, Belgium and the low countries.
