The cold air over Scandinavia is squeezing it’s way eastward between low pressure over IONAIONAIslands Of North Atlantic.
Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. and high pressure over northern Sweden and Finland this lunchtime. Wind chill figures across the northeast are further reduced by heavy rain and strong to gale force southeasterly winds. The deeper colder air remains further east but there’s no denying that it’s icy fingers are forecast to permeate eastward in the next five days.
GFSGFSThe Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. – 00 UTCUTCCoordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). 17 November 2022
We might think we’ve had a very mild November so far but it’s been exceptionally mild across southern Scandinavia with anomalies for the first two weeks +6.9°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. The central Atlantic remains slightly colder than average despite the above average SSTSSTSea Surface Temperatures.
The year 2022 is still currently the warmest year in the CETCETCentral England Temperature series that started back in 1659. I make the mean temperature up to the 13th of November 12.08°C a massive +1.97°C above the 1961-1990 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. It’s closest rival is the year 2014 with a mean of 11.72°C. I can’t see 2022 being beaten now, the only thing that might stop it is if we get a repeat performance of December 2010, which to be honest looks highly unlikely.
I can count at least twelve new daily maximums that have occurred this year (red diamonds), and another seven new daily high minimums as well. If you like me like snowy winters this graph does make pretty bleak viewing, with few in the way of air frosts.
The last 17 monthly mean temperature in the UKUKThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. have all been above the 1981-2010 LTALTALong Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in the gridded climate data series from the UKMOUKMOThe Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. I’m sure we are going to hear a lot more about this particularly salient fact in the next few weeks, so I thought I would spend some time and write a viewer that displayed consecutive mean temperatures. I think I’ve come up with the best solution to visualise spells of above or below average climatic values, be they means of temperature, or totals of precipitation or sunshine.
It’s certainly true that there hasn’t been a longer, more incredible, spell of consecutive warm months in the gridded series since 1884, although there have been a couple of longer runs of consecutive cold months. The period between March 1885 and September 1886 saw 19 consecutive cold months for example. There are many ways of deriving statistics like this, using mean maximum or mean minimum, or perhaps changing the LTA.
If you thought it was extremely mild across the north of Scotland take a look at southern Scandinavia. The solid returns of +6°C anomalies across the Lancashire plain are another indication that the Myerscough temperature was around 2°C too warm, but what do I know?
A truly extraordinarily mild day across the country today. Temperatures in the strath have already reached 18.6°C in this mornings sunshine, making it the warmest place in the British Isles, and even a touch warmer than along the Moray Coast. These high temperatures are being fueled by a super foehnFoehnA foehn, is a type of dry, relatively warm, downslope wind that occurs in the lee (downwind side) of a mountain range. It is a rain shadow wind that results from the subsequent adiabatic warming of air that has dropped most of its moisture on windward slopes (see orographic lift). As a consequence of the different adiabatic lapse rates of moist and dry air, the air on the leeward slopes becomes warmer than equivalent elevations on the windward slopes. effect that’s going on in the southwesterly flow in the broad and elongated warm sector, with winds over Ben Nevis and CairngormCairn GormCairn Gorm (Scottish Gaelic: An Cà rn Gorm) is a mountain in the Scottish Highlands. It is part of the Cairngorms range and wider Grampian Mountains. With a summit elevation of 1,245 m (4,085 ft) above sea level, Cairn Gorm is classed as a Munro and is the seventh-highest mountain in the British Isles. close to hurricane force 12, and gusts in excess of 100 mph.
