22 Dec 2022 – Analysis 10 UTC

Dear Diary
Not too difficult to do an analysis on the 10 UTCUTC Coordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). chart with a beautiful satellite image like this one to help. The first dry and bright morning since Saturday up here in the Highlands.

Lets see what the professionals made of it at 06 UTC down at EX1.

Despite these two analyses being just fours apart, It’s quite interesting to see their take on the analysis. No warm sector to explain the conditions across southern England like I have, Mr Occlusion has lived up to his name and has just thrown in an occlusion across the SW of England to explain that away. The occlusion they’ve drawn W-E across Shetland is there to mark the boundary between the sub 528 dm air to the north and the milder air across Scotland (dewpoints of 1 or2°C) I suppose, so why not just call it a ‘cold’ front?

Analysis, UKMO

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Joint sixth longest cold spell since 1772

Dear Diary
Believe it, or believe it not diary, the recent cold spell that has just come to an end was the joint sixth longest cold spell since 1772 in Central England. The Gannt chart lists all cold spells that lasted at least 10 days, with daily mean anomalies of -4.9°C or lower. The table on the left lists all cold spells ranked using the dense ranking method. That’s based on anomalies calculated against the 1878-2021 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. It’s no wonder the Daily Mail was getting hot under the collar about the Met OfficeUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy’s response to it and I think it’s longevity caught many people out. Cold spells of that length are not that common, it might not have been as severe as some in the past, but it lasted ten days from the 8th to the 17th of December.

CET, Cold

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Differences between freezing rain and glazed ice

Courtesy of Wikipedia

What are the differences, if any, between freezing rain and glazed ice? Well as far as I can see the end results are the same, surfaces covered with clear ice, but whereas freezing rain comes from supercooled water, glazed ice (also widely known as clear or black ice) doesn’t. At this point I would normally cite the Wiki entry for freezing rain and another for glazed ice, but I won’t because the authors have clearly mixed up information about the two and also the processes that cause them. Suffice it to say, from someone who remembers well the freezing rain in March 1969, and walked along an avenue of trees that suffered the effects in the hills above Sheffield, I beleive freezing rain occurs much more rarely than glazed ice does, and the Meteorological Glossary makes the distinction between the two clear. The media isn’t at all interested in the difference between the two of course, and it’s rather like if we have fog and temperatures are below freezing then it must be freezing fog – wrong again – but that’s a story for another day.

Ice

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November 2022 – Global temperatures

Dear Diary
The 12 month average is now and truly on the slide once again – and for the third time since 2016. Mean global temperatures are no higher that they were seven years ago, back in 2015. I don’t think this was a talking point at the recent COP27COP27 The 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference Of the Parties of the UNFCCC, more commonly referred to as COP27, was the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference, held from 6 November until 20 November 2022 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. summit, and I’m sure if Greta ThunbergGreta Thunberg Greta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg (born 3 January 2003) is a Swedish environmental activist who is known for challenging world leaders to take immediate action for climate change mitigation knew about it, she would have a big scowl on her face. I’m sure that the climate scientists will blame it all on the triple dip La NiñaLa Niña La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man.", which may be true, but I reckon there’s a bit more natural variability in the mix, but then again what the hell do I know.

As an example of just how the world is cooling at the moment take a look at the estimated monthly anomalies from the GISTempGISTemp v4 The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 is an estimate of global surface temperature change using data from NOAA GHCN v4 (land stations) and ERSST v5 (ocean areas). series since 1970. This November [2022] is a full 0.2°C cooler than last year, this may not sound much, but in regard to global temperatures that’s a massive amount of cooling.

Click to enlarge
Global Temperatures

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SST Comparison

Dear Diary
It’s a slow job cooling the oceans with a two-week cold spell. SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures are still between 1°C and 3°C above the LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in waters that surround IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK., and the cold snap has only done a little to lower them from where they were at the start of November.

Cold, SST

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Coldest December since 2010 and fourth coldest since 1884

Dear Diary
We are more or less halfway through December 2022 now, and the latest mean temperatures for the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. (-3.49°C estimated) indicate that currently 2022 is the coldest since 2010 (the coldest December on record), and the fourth coldest since 1884 behind 2010, 1981 and 1890. Of course there is the matter of the second half of the month to come, and these low values are bound to take a big knock early next week as very mild air is set to make a temporary return.

Cold, December

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Thank God for NASA

Dear Diary
Another fantastic image of Blighty courtesy of the Americans and NASANASA The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is an independent agency of the US federal government responsible for the civil space program, aeronautics research, and space research. EOSDISEOSDIS The Earth Observing System Data and Information System is a key core capability in NASA’s Earth Science Data Systems Program. Designed and maintained by Raytheon Intelligence & Space, it is a comprehensive data and information system designed to perform a wide variety of functions in support of a heterogeneous national and international user community.. Another day of sub-zero temperatures in StrathpefferStrathpeffer Strathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469.. Mostly sunny but we’ve just had the lightest of snow showers with big flakes. I might be imaging it but I reckon the NW’ly flow has backed a little, this seems to be helping the showers last that bit longer before they run out of steam, and are just starting to creep that bit further across Ross-shire this afternoon.

Satellite

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The extent of the snow

Dear Diary
An interesting satellite image from EODIS showing the extent of the snow across Scotland today. Hopefully we will finally get a little bit at the bottom of the Moray Firth funnel in the coming few days before it all disappears. Temperatures were still around -10°C in Braemar when the satellite spun over this lunchtime to snap this picture.

Satellite

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A distant CB

Dear Diary
I spotted a distant CBCB Cumulonimbus cloud. Well-developed cumulonimbus clouds are characterized by a flat, anvil-like top looking northeast down the Strath this morning. I reckon it must have been was some way off the coast of Caithness gauging by the weather radar and the satellite imagery.

That distant CB survived and grew a little during the day as it drifted very slowly south and was still here just before sunset lit up by the setting sun at 1520 UTCUTC Coordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT)..

Clouds, Photos, Satellite, Weather Radar

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Countryfile Forecast (adagio)

Dear Diary
I just noticed that you now can set different speeds on BBCBBC The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is the national broadcaster of the United Kingdom, based at Broadcasting House in London. It is the world's oldest national broadcaster, and the largest broadcaster in the world by number of employees, employing over 22,000 staff in total, of whom approximately 19,000 are in public-sector broadcasting. iPlayer, so I thought I would try it out on this evenings Countryfile forecast. SKLSKL Sarah Keith-Lucas an English meteorologist and BBC weather presenter is still far too fast even at x0.8, so I slowed her down to x0.5, and she now sounds like she’s had a bit too much to drink.
It also looks more and more certain that this cold spell will end on the 18th as I mentioned yesterday. It doesn’t seem that it’s going to put up much of a fight which I can’t honestly believe is right. NWPNWP Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. models have always been notoriously wrong at ending a cold spell too quickly and I’m sure this one won’t go without a fight.

BBC

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2022 will be the warmest year in Central England

Dear Diary
After a fiddly bit morning of programming, I can finally reveal that 2022 WILL be the warmest in the Central England daily series which started in 1772. That of course assumes that the rest of the month, from the 11th onward, has anomalies no higher than -3.5°C for each of the next 21 days. That’s not impossible of course, but even after a cold start such as we’ve seen this December, the mean temperature for the first ten days is still only 2.37°C below the December LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO., which would mean that the very low anomalies of the last few days would have to continue for the rest of the month.
If this finding is true for Central England, I think it’s more than likely it’ll be true of the gridded data for the whole UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. as well.
I found it easier to write that small program than to sit down and work it out with pen, paper and calculator, which must say something about how my brain works.

CET, Warm

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A distinctly nippy IONA

Sunday, 11 December 2022 – 12 UTCUTC Coordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). temperature anomalies

Dear Diary
Another very cold day across all parts of IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. this Sunday, exceptionally so across parts of the south with anomalies as low as -10°C this lunchtime, as this cold spell continues. Many areas will see an ice day today with temperatures remaining sub-zero this afternoon. Finally, the northern Highlands of Scotland, have lost that persistent and tenacious east northeast wind of the last week that has been funneling a feed of milder winds into the Moray Firth. No doubt it’s just taking a breather and will be back later in the week.

Anomalies, Cold, Frost, Scotland

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December 2010 v 2022

Dear Diary
I thought I’d take a look back at how the start of this December (2022) compares with that of 2010, the coldest December in the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. in the gridded data series that extends back to 1884. I’m afraid it’s no contest so far, at least in the first eleven days of the month. It’s funny living in Devon as we did in 2010, it didn’t feel at all like it was going to end up the coldest December on record. We certainly had a couple of falls of snow, but the snow wasn’t as powdery, or drift as it did in the intense cold wave of January 1987. I’m beginning to sound like that episode of Vicar of Dibley now so I’ll stop.

Cold, December, Snow

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The Moray Firth hot spot

Hi Diary
The Moray Firth hot-spot is alive and kicking this morning! After dipping to -1°C by midnight, temperatures in StrathpefferStrathpeffer Strathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. are close to 3°C by 8 am, after a moderate easterly wind picked up at 4 am and blew milder air into the ‘funnel’ that is the Moray Firth.
The rumours of a giant alien spaceship crashing into the Firth over 8,000 years ago and causing a massive Tsunami could well be true, and last night they must have fired up the engines.
The spread of anomalies across the country this morning is quite impressive across IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. once again, from -12°C across the south, to +1°C across the NENE North East of Scotland. There’s a good covering of snow on the braes of Ben Wyvis above 200 M, but it’s just sleet or wet snow down in the strath, and very reminiscent of the last few winters in this part of the world.

Anomalies, Snow, Strathpeffer, Temperature

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Fog over Ireland

Dear Diary
A fair bit of fog over Ireland still lingering in the river valleys such as the Shannon well into this afternoon. Temperatures are still well below freezing in places, so some of it could be of the freezing variety. CBCB Cumulonimbus cloud. Well-developed cumulonimbus clouds are characterized by a flat, anvil-like top tops across the NW and N of Scotland as well as a line of them running into Liverpool Bay. It looks like the W’NW wind blowing over Exmoor and Dartmoor is triggering some downstream stratus across east Devon, but I could be wrong.

Fog, Satellite

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Cold front makes slow progress

Dear Diary
The cold front is making painfully slow progress across Caithness and Sutherland this afternoon and evening whilst continuing to plunge southward further east down the meridian. Negative dew pointsDew point The dew point is the temperature to which air must be cooled to become saturated with water vapor, assuming constant air pressure and water content. refuse to advect southwestward and any showers become scattered this evening. A frustrating day. What is going on diary?

Analysis, Scotland

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Wed, 7 Dec 2022 – 09 UTC analysis

Dear Diary
Not feeling particularly cold this morning here in StrathpefferStrathpeffer Strathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. with temperatures close to 3°C. No measurable rain since the second of the month, but a few spots of rain in what little wind there is this morning. There’s a coating of snow on Ben Wyvis, but nothing down here in the strath. Hoping for something from this second cold front later this afternoon, but not counting on it.

Analysis, Snow, Strathpeffer

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We’ve got a widespread frost

Dear Diary,
Carol Kirkwood reckons that “We’ve got a widespread frost”. Not really Carol that’s not a widespread frost, if you look at a chart of the 18-06 minimum temperatures this morning (an air) frost has occurred in places where high ground has given shelter from the wind and helped to keep skies clear of cloud across southern Scotland, and parts of western England. We may have a widespread frost later in the week by the looks of it. I would agree that there may have been a widespread ground frost, but that wasn’t what she was talking about.

BBC, Frost

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The Great Smog of London

The Great Smog of London, or Great Smog of 1952, was a severe air pollution event that affected London, England, in December 1952. A period of unusually cold weather, combined with an anticyclone and windless conditions, collected airborne pollutants—mostly arising from the use of coal—to form a thick layer of smog over the city. It lasted from Friday 5 December to Tuesday 9 December 1952, then dispersed quickly when the weather changed.

The smog caused major disruption by reducing visibility and even penetrating indoor areas, far more severely than previous smog events, called “pea-soupers“. Government medical reports in the weeks following the event estimated that up to 4,000 people had died as a direct result of the smog and 100,000 more were made ill by the smog’s effects on the human respiratory tract. More recent research suggests tha

Courtesy of Wikipedia

Fog

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Friday the 16th of December

This looks far more of a threat of heavy snow than does tomorrow’s snow showers across the North of Scotland. Milder air pushing up against the cold block across the north, and a vigorous low moving eastward across the North of France. It’s always been the perfect set up for a lot of snow in the past, that is with the usual caveats; away from the coast and over higher ground; but maybe not exclusively in this case. Even at T+240 the GFSGFS The Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. and ECMWFECMWF The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. are in quite close agreement about it, but this is of course is in the realms of science fiction still at this range.

ECMWF, GFS, Snow

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