Some of the wetter places this Autumn

Here are some of the wettest places in the SYNOPSYNOP SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. reports this meteorological Autumn so far. They may not have seen as much rainfall as the likes of Capel Curig or Tulloch Bridge, but their POAPOA Percentage Of Average put them in the top ten wettest places in the whole of IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK.. Despite the local flooding in places, I reckon this wet Autumn has got to be looked upon as a good thing to replenish rivers and aquifers, but as you can see from the accumulations plotted in the map not all places have been as wet as these particular four sites. With a couple of weeks still left to go this could end up as one of the wettest Autumns on record.

Autumn, Rain

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Cold spreads its icy fingers eastward

The cold air over Scandinavia is squeezing it’s way eastward between low pressure over IONAIONA Islands Of North Atlantic. Yes I know there's an island called Iona, but this is so I don't have to use the term 'British Isles' when referring to the whole of Ireland and the UK. and high pressure over northern Sweden and Finland this lunchtime. Wind chill figures across the northeast are further reduced by heavy rain and strong to gale force southeasterly winds. The deeper colder air remains further east but there’s no denying that it’s icy fingers are forecast to permeate eastward in the next five days.

GFSGFS The Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. – 00 UTCUTC Coordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). 17 November 2022
GFS, Temperature

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UKP regional 365 day average

The 365 day regional moving average in the UKPUKP UKP is a gridded datasets of UK regional precipitation. series from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has picked up considerably across the southeast, southwest and central England since the last week in October. If we are lucky and go on at this rate we could see the hose-pipe across many parts of England and Wales being lifted for Christmas. In the other regions, apart from Northern Ireland, things still seem content to oscillate between 83% and 97% of the 1981-2010 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO..

Rain

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Wet February 2023?

Weather patterns in Autumn may lead to flooding in February, Met Office warns. I’ve put a watch on this bit of news. I’ll revisit it at the start of March, if I remember and am still around, to see if the prediction holds water. The Guardian has made it impossible to directly share any of it’s articles with WordPress(?), so the only way around it was to share the article as a tweet and then embed the tweet in WordPress.

The Guardian, UKMO

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CO2 12 month rate of change continues to slow.

The 12 month rate of change in CO2CO2 Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO2) is a chemical compound made up of molecules that each have one carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms. It is found in the gas state at room temperature. levels from the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii continues to fall from 3 ppmppm Parts Per Million per year in 2019, to close to 2 ppm per year in October 2022. It’s the only way you can detect if something underlying is going on with CO2, because a plot of monthly values is relentlessly increasing by 24.8 ppm per decade, if you believe the simple linear trend.

CO2

CO2 12 month rate of change continues to slow. Read More »

Cold air not that far away

According to the latest run of the GFSGFS The Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States National Weather Service. model, The cold air to the east over the Baltic and Scandinavia is never very far away from the northeast of Scotland in the next five days.

GFS

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Latest November temperature anomalies

We might think we’ve had a very mild November so far but it’s been exceptionally mild across southern Scandinavia with anomalies for the first two weeks +6.9°C above the 1991-2020 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. The central Atlantic remains slightly colder than average despite the above average SSTSST Sea Surface Temperatures.

Anomalies, Temperature

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1.5°C still alive, but most likely in 2100

How’s this for a confusing bit of gobbledygook from the Met OfficeUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy about the 1.5°C rise in global temperatures. The title seems to suggest that 1.5°C will be realised in 2100 but that’s not what the article says. It may reach it before then and overshooting it, before falling back to +1.5°C by 2100. They seem to have side-stepped the $64,000 dollar question, which is of course when will global temperatures reach the much hyped 1.5°C higher than in pre-industrial times?

Global Temperatures, UKMO

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12 UTC analysis

The cold high over the NW of Sweden is resisting the incursion of milder air from the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland., and the frontal system trying to edge E across Scotland this lunchtime has been stalled, so much so that a small wave on the cold front has developed over the SW of Scotland. The rain arrived in StrathpefferStrathpeffer Strathpeffer (Scottish Gaelic: Srath Pheofhair) is a village and spa town in Easter Ross, Highland, Scotland, with a population of 1,469. a couple of hours earlier than forecast by the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, but that didn’t prevent us getting the lawan cut and some leaves sucked up! Grass still growing in mid-November is something we can do without.

Analysis

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2022 still on track for warmest year in central England

The year 2022 is still currently the warmest year in the CETCET Central England Temperature series that started back in 1659. I make the mean temperature up to the 13th of November 12.08°C a massive +1.97°C above the 1961-1990 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO.. It’s closest rival is the year 2014 with a mean of 11.72°C. I can’t see 2022 being beaten now, the only thing that might stop it is if we get a repeat performance of December 2010, which to be honest looks highly unlikely.

I can count at least twelve new daily maximums that have occurred this year (red diamonds), and another seven new daily high minimums as well. If you like me like snowy winters this graph does make pretty bleak viewing, with few in the way of air frosts.

CET, Temperature

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17 consecutive months of above average mean temperatures in UK

The last 17 monthly mean temperature in the UKUK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. have all been above the 1981-2010 LTALTA Long Term Average. This is usually defined as a 30 year period by the WMO. in the gridded climate data series from the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. I’m sure we are going to hear a lot more about this particularly salient fact in the next few weeks, so I thought I would spend some time and write a viewer that displayed consecutive mean temperatures. I think I’ve come up with the best solution to visualise spells of above or below average climatic values, be they means of temperature, or totals of precipitation or sunshine.


It’s certainly true that there hasn’t been a longer, more incredible, spell of consecutive warm months in the gridded series since 1884, although there have been a couple of longer runs of consecutive cold months. The period between March 1885 and September 1886 saw 19 consecutive cold months for example. There are many ways of deriving statistics like this, using mean maximum or mean minimum, or perhaps changing the LTA.

Statistics, Temperature

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Hurricane activity in Atlantic dips below predicted level

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/04/weather-tracker–hurricane-activity-in-atlantic-dips-below-predicted-level?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Still a couple weeks left till the official end of the North Atlantic season, but it looks fairly certain that the 2022 has seen a slightly below average season using the ACEACE Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. The resulting total can be divided by 10,000 to make it more manageable, or added to other totals in order to work out a total for a particular group of storms. as a measure. So many short lived tropical cyclones barely last more than 36 or 48 hours in recent years thanks to the intense forensic work of the NHC that counting the number of named storms (17) isn’t a particularly good way to measure just how active anyone season has been.

Accumulated ACE
13 November 2022
The Guardian, Tropical Cyclones

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Cold trough across North America

These are the 09 UTCUTC Coordinated Universal Time or UTC is the primary time standard by which the world regulates clocks and time. It is within about 1 second of mean solar time (such as UT1) at 0° longitude (at the IERS Reference Meridian as the currently used prime meridian) and is not adjusted for daylight saving time. It is effectively a successor to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). air temperatures across North America. As well as showing the significant cold outbreak across the Midwest, they also show the disparity in SYNOPSYNOP SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations. SYNOP reports are typically mad hourly and consist of groups of numbers (and slashes where data is not available) describing general weather information, such as the temperature, barometric pressure and visibility at a weather station. observation coverage, showing how much greater the MSCMSC The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC; French: Service météorologique du Canada – SMC) is a division of Environment and Climate Change Canada, which primarily provides public meteorological information and weather forecasts and warnings of severe weather and other environmental hazards. value SYNOP observations than do their American counterparts the NWSNWS National weather service definition, an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that is responsible for meteorological observations. south of the fiftieth parallel. It could well be that there are many hundred of American SYNOP observations that are never released into the GTSGTS Global Telecommunications System and excluded for some reason known only to themselves. There seems to be a better coverage over the oceans than there is over the land.

Observations, Temperature

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11 November 2022 – 18 UTC analysis

Large rises of pressure behind the cold front across NW Scotland. The large area of orographic rainOrographic rain Orographic precipitation occurs when moist air is forced upwards over rising terrain and condenses on the slope, such as a mountain. ahead of the cold front and which has been plaguing W Scotald for three days has very quickly shrunk away to nothing this evening.

Analysis

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18.6°C in Strathpeffer

A truly extraordinarily mild day across the country today. Temperatures in the strath have already reached 18.6°C in this mornings sunshine, making it the warmest place in the British Isles, and even a touch warmer than along the Moray Coast. These high temperatures are being fueled by a super foehnFoehn A foehn, is a type of dry, relatively warm, downslope wind that occurs in the lee (downwind side) of a mountain range. It is a rain shadow wind that results from the subsequent adiabatic warming of air that has dropped most of its moisture on windward slopes (see orographic lift). As a consequence of the different adiabatic lapse rates of moist and dry air, the air on the leeward slopes becomes warmer than equivalent elevations on the windward slopes. effect that’s going on in the southwesterly flow in the broad and elongated warm sector, with winds over Ben Nevis and CairngormCairn Gorm Cairn Gorm (Scottish Gaelic: An Càrn Gorm) is a mountain in the Scottish Highlands. It is part of the Cairngorms range and wider Grampian Mountains. With a summit elevation of 1,245 m (4,085 ft) above sea level, Cairn Gorm is classed as a Munro and is the seventh-highest mountain in the British Isles. close to hurricane force 12, and gusts in excess of 100 mph.

Strathpeffer, Temperature

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Cairngorm Winds

Ben Rich should have taken a look at the observations from mountain stations across Scotland, he might then have realised that you didn’t have to look at high level wind at 35,000 feet to find extremely windy conditions.

BBC, Wind

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Differences in UKMO regional forecasts

So a daytime maximum on Friday the 11 November 2022 of 18°C in the north of Scotland is termed Mild, whilst at the same time a maximum of 17°C in the southeast of England is termed Exceptionally Mild. Why the disparity? Also notice the difference in wordcount which also reflects the UKMOUKMO The Meteorological Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy preoccupation with regions outwith London and the south east.

Forecasts, UKMO

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